Somali opposition forms “Somalia Future Council” as political clock ticks
In a conciliatory — and potentially combustible — move, prominent Somali leaders gathered in Nairobi this week to unveil a new opposition coalition they call the “Somalia Future Council.” Brought together by regional heavyweights and veteran national figures, the alliance aims to shape the country’s fraught political transition as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term edges toward its final months.
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Who’s in the room matters
The coalition combines the influence of Puntland State President Said Abdullahi Deni and Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe with the political heft of former prime ministers Hassan Ali Khaire and Abdi Farah Shirdon and lawmaker Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, a leader of the Somali Salvation Forum. That mix of federal member state presidents and national figures signals an attempt to bridge regional and national agendas at a moment when trust between Mogadishu and the member states has been frayed.
“This is a message that the regions want to be at the table for the next phase of Somalia’s state-building,” said one participant who asked not to be named. “They are insisting that transition decisions cannot be made in isolation.”
The Nairobi meeting — facilitated and hosted, according to the participants, with Kenyan support — agreed to hold a follow-up summit inside Somalia to finalize the coalition’s structure and to call publicly for unity, peace and cooperation during what they framed as a delicate period for the country.
Politics under a shrinking clock
The timing is stark. The president’s mandate is reported to have roughly seven months remaining. On the calendar sits a string of unresolved issues: disputed constitutional amendments, a contested electoral process, and lingering grievances over the balance of power between Mogadishu and the federal member states. Those disputes have repeatedly delayed elections in recent years and have been fertile ground for political brinkmanship.
Somalia’s federal model, established more than a decade ago as an antidote to centralised authoritarianism and clan-based exclusion, has frequently produced friction. Federal member states have at times acted as autonomous power centers; the federal government has been accused of overreach at others. The new council — bringing together two regional presidents with national politicians — could be a vehicle for reconciling those tensions or for hardening a counterweight to the presidency.
“Coalitions in Somali politics are often pragmatic and fluid,” said an analyst who follows Horn of Africa politics. “They can be rallying points for constructive bargaining or instruments of obstruction. Much depends on whether this council commits to inclusive dialogue inside Somalia — with civil society, clans, and women’s groups — or uses external forums to mobilize pressure.”
Security worries cast a long shadow
Political jockeying is unfolding against an unforgiving security backdrop. Al-Shabaab, the Islamist insurgency that has long sought to topple Somalia’s fragile institutions, has stepped up operations this year; Somali authorities and partners say the group retook three districts earlier in the year, including areas in Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions. Rural gains and episodic urban attacks have kept large swathes of territory under threat and tested the capacity of national and regional forces.
Security analysts note that political fragmentation can play into the insurgents’ hands. “When governance is distracted by elite bargaining, local protections fray and extremist groups exploit the vacuum,” the analyst added. “Conversely, a credible, inclusive political compact could bolster co-ordinated security responses and legitimacy.”
Regional and international stakes
Neighbouring countries and international partners — from the African Union to Western donors — watch closely. Somalia’s stability matters far beyond its borders: it affects the safety of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping lanes, refugee flows, counterterrorism cooperation and regional diplomatic alignments.
Kenya’s role as host is itself an indicator of the regional interest in Somalia’s trajectory. Nairobi has previously hosted negotiations and has vested interests in a stable Somalia, given cross-border security incidents and large Somali diaspora communities in Kenya. The presence of former prime ministers like Khaire and Shirdon, figures with national recognition and international contacts, could help the council court external support — or raise red flags in Mogadishu about outside interference.
What could the council do — and what should it avoid?
- Pressure for a negotiated transition: The council could push for clearer timelines, mediation mechanisms and an agreed electoral framework that includes federal member states.
- Broker institutional reforms: If it prioritizes constitutional clarity on federalism, resource-sharing and security arrangements, it might reduce the recurring causes of deadlock.
- Fuel polarisation: If the council becomes an oppositional bloc seeking to sideline the presidency or mobilize external leverage, it risks deepening a political impasse and harming security cooperation.
The next weeks will be telling. A follow-up summit planned to take place inside Somalia is a key test of intent: will the leaders invite a broad array of domestic stakeholders — including women’s groups, youth activists, clan elders and civil society — or will talks remain an elite compact? Inclusion could lend legitimacy; exclusion could split the polity further.
Beyond process, there are practical questions: can the council help deliver basic services in contested areas, reduce violence, and create conditions for a credible electoral process? For many Somalis, the immediate measures that signal competence — functioning local courts, schools, markets and security patrols — matter more than high politics.
Somalia at a crossroads
The formation of the Somalia Future Council is at once a hopeful gesture of cooperation and a reminder of how fragile Somali politics remains. In recent years, leaders have alternately broken deadlocks through compromise and inflamed them through zero-sum tactics. The international community can encourage inclusivity and support mediation, but lasting stability will depend on Somali actors’ willingness to share power and repair trust.
As this new council prepares to move from Nairobi to Somali soil, one fundamental question hangs over the effort: will it be an instrument to steer the country toward an inclusive, orderly transition — or another chapter in an elite-driven contest that leaves the security and needs of ordinary Somalis unaddressed?
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
