In Mogadishu, a conversation about heat, water and peace
MOGADISHU — Under the late-morning sun that bakes the coastal capital, diplomats, government ministers, peacebuilders and community activists gathered in a hotel ballroom that has seen its share of history. The occasion was modest by international standards — a one-day “Climate Talk” convened by the German Embassy — but the setting and the stakes were unmistakable: in Somalia, where climate shocks and political fragility intersect, even a discussion can be an act of diplomacy.
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“Bringing the Climate Talk here underlines how relevant the nexus between security and climate change is, both for Somalia and for Germany,” said German Ambassador Sebastian Groth as he opened the meeting at the Decale Hotel. The exchange was the first time the series — previously held in Nairobi and Mombasa — was staged in Mogadishu, a move intended as both a practical outreach and a symbolic vote of confidence in Somalia’s capacity to host multilateral conversations.
Heat, hunger and the long shadow of instability
Somalia’s vulnerability to climate change is stark. With roughly 80 percent of the population dependent on farming and pastoralism, shifts in rain patterns, more frequent droughts and rising sea levels directly threaten livelihoods, food security and — by extension — social stability. Somalia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible, yet it sits among the nations most exposed to climate impacts.
“Rising temperatures, sea level rise and changing rain patterns put immense strain on a society where 80 percent of people depend on agriculture and pastoralism,” Ambassador Groth told participants — a reminder that equity, not just emissions, must sit at the centre of international climate diplomacy.
The talk came as part of a broader recognition — among policymakers and peace practitioners alike — that climate stress multiplies fault lines. Competition over dwindling grazing land or seasonal water points can inflame local disputes that in turn feed recruitment into armed groups or spur displacement. But as those tensions rise, so do opportunities to defuse them through cooperative environmental planning, participants argued.
From corridors of power to elders’ meetings
What set the Mogadishu meeting apart was the effort to bridge scales: national officials and donors sat alongside representatives of Somalia’s federal member states and leaders from grassroots peacebuilding networks. That cross‑pollination mattered. When environmental directors from regional states exchange data and policy notes, they often find common ground even when political relations are strained.
“Even when political cooperation is difficult, environmental policy is proving to be a space where collaboration is possible and effective,” Groth said, pointing to the pragmatic, sometimes technical work that threads through political contestation.
The Berghof Foundation, Germany’s implementing partner for the conference, emphasized that those technical solutions must be rooted in local experience. Janel Galvanek, head of Berghof’s Regional Peace Support Department, steered sessions that drew on peacebuilding networks already active in Somalia’s regions. She stressed the value of listening to community elders, youth groups and women’s organisations — actors who often manage the day‑to‑day negotiations over land and water.
“Peacebuilding strategies that ignore local knowledge and the leadership of women and young people are unlikely to stick,” Galvanek said, outlining how grassroots projects — from rehabilitating communal water catchments to supporting alternative livelihoods — can reduce friction and build social capital.
Money, policy and the question of scale
Somalia has not been idle on the diplomatic front. Delegates highlighted national achievements: an updated nationally determined contribution (NDC 3.0), an adaptation plan and steps to access finance from the Green Climate Fund. Yet the transition from policy documents to community impact is not automatic.
How can scarce climate funds be channelled efficiently to pastoralists in Hirshabelle or farmers on the Juba riverbanks? Can small-scale environmental projects be scaled up without losing local legitimacy? These were the practical concerns that animated many conversations, and they point to a wider challenge echoed across the global south: climate finance is increasing in headline figures, but effectiveness depends on governance, transparency and local participation.
For Mogadishu — a city scarred by conflict and rebuilding amid a fragile federal system — the promise is both strategic and moral. If cooperation over dams, reforestation or coastal adaptation can be made to work, it could provide everyday incentives for constituencies to opt for negotiated solutions over violence.
Lessons from the Horn and beyond
Somalia’s situation mirrors trends across the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, where climate stress intensifies migration, competition over resources and the risks of radicalisation. International actors such as Germany are reframing security assistance to include climate resilience, and Somalia’s homegrown efforts offer transferable lessons: integrating customary dispute resolution with scientific monitoring, elevating women’s decision-making roles, and tying environmental restoration to short-term employment for youth.
But the larger questions remain. Can international partners balance urgency with local ownership? Will climate diplomacy focus on symbolic summits or on durable institutions that manage water, grazing and land tenure? And perhaps most crucially: can climate cooperation become an entry point for reconciliation where political dialogue has stalled?
In the corridors of the Decale Hotel, the answers were tentative but hopeful. Delegates spoke of expanded data-sharing, pilot projects on watershed management and the slow work of building trust across federal lines. For ordinary Somalis confronting another dry season, such technical fixes may seem remote. Yet for the peacebuilders in the room, every collective irrigation scheme or rehabilitated pasture is a small, practical investment in stability.
At a time when climate change is reshaping geopolitics from Dhaka to Dar es Salaam, Mogadishu’s Climate Talk was a reminder that adaptation and peace are intertwined — and that local voices must lead the conversation about what resilience looks like on the ground.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
