Uganda and Somalia Seek Deeper Ties — But Will MoUs Become Markets?
KAMPALA — When Presidents Yoweri Museveni and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud meet in Kampala on Oct. 7–8 for the Second Joint Permanent Commission (JPC) Investment and Business Summit, they will do more than pose for the customary handshakes and cameras. The pair are expected to sign three memorandums of understanding on trade and investment promotion, tourism development and diplomatic collaboration — documents that, if implemented, could nudge a historically intermittent relationship into the realm of steady economic partnership.
- Advertisement -
The summit’s theme — “Promoting Uganda–Somalia partnership through trade, investment and tourism, and harnessing opportunities in both countries” — reads like a mission statement for a new phase of south-to-south cooperation in East Africa. It is also an expression of pragmatic needs. Uganda, a landlocked country hungry for routes to ports and new markets, and Somalia, a country rebuilding institutions and looking to diversify foreign partners, both stand to gain if rhetoric is converted into roads, ports, and business deals.
Past, Present and Portents
The Uganda–Somalia Joint Permanent Commission was launched in 2022 to formalize political and economic ties after decades of uneven engagement. Uganda was a leading troop contributor to the African Union mission in Somalia and has engaged in diplomatic outreach across the Horn. Somalia’s government, in turn, is eager for partners that can invest in infrastructure, services and private sector growth as it wrestles with security challenges and the long task of reconstruction.
“There is real appetite on both sides,” said Ahmed Nur, a Somali entrepreneur who has lived in Kampala for nearly a decade. “Somalis have trading networks across East Africa. Ugandans bring capital and logistics experience. The question is whether the MoUs will be followed by concrete projects — roads, cold chains, tourism circuits — or simply another layer of bureaucracy.”
What the Three MoUs Could Mean
Trade and investment promotion
A formal pledge to boost trade could focus attention on practical bottlenecks: customs coordination, banking links, insurance for cross-border shipments and the hard infrastructure to get goods to market. For Somalia, which has a long coastline and several functioning ports despite governance challenges, improved trade ties could offer alternatives to traditional corridors through Mombasa or Dar es Salaam. For Uganda, access to more maritime options is strategically valuable.
Tourism development
At first glance, the idea of Uganda and Somalia developing tourism in tandem sounds incongruous — Uganda’s national parks and gorilla treks contrast sharply with Somalia’s untapped 3,000-kilometre coastline and historical cities. Yet both countries have assets that international niche-tourists seek: bird life and landscapes in Uganda; coastal archaeology, dhow culture and pristine beaches in parts of Somalia. Joint ventures could also promote circuit tourism for adventurous travellers, though that requires security guarantees and marketing muscle.
Diplomatic collaboration
A diplomatic pact can translate to mutual support in regional and international organisations, coordination on refugee flows, and joint lobbying for development financing. Somalia and Uganda have overlapping interests in IGAD and the African Union and may seek to amplify their voices on issues such as maritime security, counterterrorism and development aid.
Obstacles Between Ink and Impact
Memorandums of understanding are a common first step in diplomacy, but they are not contracts. Implementation will face several hurdles:
- Security: Ongoing threats from al-Shabaab in Somalia complicate investment and tourism projects, especially outside secure urban centres.
- Infrastructure and logistics: Roads, ports and cold chains require financing and time. Without donor or private sector backing, projects stall.
- Regulatory certainty: Investors need reliable customs, banking and legal frameworks — areas where Somalia is rebuilding and Uganda has its own policy challenges.
- Financing: MoUs must be matched with concrete funding mechanisms, whether concessional loans, private equity or public-private partnerships.
“People sign MoUs all the time,” said Lydia Katende, a Kampala-based trade analyst. “Success depends on setting measurable steps: pilot projects, timelines, lead agencies and resources. Otherwise these documents gather dust.”
Wider Trends: AfCFTA, South–South Deals and Geopolitics
The Uganda–Somalia initiative sits within broader continental and global dynamics. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to boost intra-African commerce, and countries seeking to diversify supply chains are experimenting with new bilateral frameworks. At the same time, the Horn of Africa has attracted attention from Gulf states, Turkey, China and Western actors — all of whom shape the financing and political calculations around ports, airports and security partnerships.
For Somalia, new bilateral agreements with countries like Uganda signal an effort to expand beyond traditional partners and harness diaspora networks that already underpin much of the nation’s informal commerce. For Uganda, closer links with coastal states could reduce dependence on a handful of corridors and open opportunities for export of agricultural produce, services and investment in hospitality.
Questions That Remain
The summit’s immediate success will be judged not by the signatures on Oct. 8 but by what follows in the next 12 to 24 months. Important questions include:
- Will either government commit budgetary resources or incentivize private capital to turn MoUs into projects?
- Can security constraints in Somalia be mitigated sufficiently for foreign tourism and infrastructure work to proceed safely?
- Will the JPC set up joint monitoring mechanisms with clear timelines and public reporting to hold ministries and investors accountable?
There is cautious optimism in trading halls and lunch spots across Kampala. In the downtown markets, Somali shopkeepers already ply the kinds of cross-border commerce officials hope to scale. For them, what matters most is the bottom line: fewer delays at customs, cheaper transport, and reliable contracts.
“We want to move from talking to trading,” Ahmed Nur said. “If these leaders can make that happen, it will change livelihoods here — and that is the real test of diplomacy.”
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
