Efforts to Reform in Somalia Escalate Tensions Amidst the Persistent Threat of Al-Shabaab
In Mogadishu (AX), the Somali federal government’s ambition to transition from a clan-based election process to a universal suffrage by 2026 has stirred the political pot, all while the nation faces a pesky al-Shabaab resurgence. On October 2, during a National Consultative Council (NCC) powwow, Somali bigwigs mapped out a reform strategy, eyeing extended terms for state presidents. This plan, however, pulled back the curtain on deep-seated rifts among regional honchos, as tensions simmer amid rising insurgency woes.
Jubaland’s boss man, Ahmed Mohamed Islam—known in the hood as ‘Madobe,’—bailed out of the discussion, opposing the suggested shake-up. Over in Northeastern State, which typically gives the cold shoulder to federal directives, there wasn’t even a mention of attendance. Leaders from the Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest states gingerly backed the overhaul, though they’re wrestling with local naysayers and the gargantuan task of boosting security for a national election. Skeptics caution that sidelining pivotal voices might backfire, pointing fingers at the tumult after similar reforms in 2022 as a dire warning.
The reform rollercoaster rolls on as Somalia is knee-deep in an al-Shabaab insurgency, especially in the heartlands and southern stretches. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) logged 226 incidents of political violence between September 21 and October 18, with 393 folks losing their lives. Galgaduud’s El Dheer district has transformed into a fiery combat zone, where government squads, helped by clan militias, are tangling with the militants. The district’s wild woods have let al-Shabaab fighters dodge capture, throwing a wrench in the government’s scheme to pacify the area.
On October 3, federal squads kicked off an offensive in El Dheer, hammering al-Shabaab strongholds with a little backup from international allies in the air. Reports hint at heavy militant losses, with ongoing ops aiming to dismantle the insurgents’ dug-in bases. Yet, the insurgency’s ability to endure in the boonies underscores the uphill battle of holding ground where militants twist local loyalties and gripes to their benefit.
While federal forces pour their efforts into Galgaduud, al-Shabaab is amping up its game in Jubaland, leveraging political mishmash to widen its dominion. On September 27, they slapped a blockade on Bardera town, severing essential services and stranding local folk. By erecting checkpoints and taxing travellers on vital trade paths through Gedo, Kismaayo, and Jamaame, the group has snugged its grip on southern Somalia, wielding fear and economic shenanigans to shake government power.
Lately, the militants have shored up checkpoints and rallied fighters, answering sporadic government punches in Jubaland. Their game plan includes enlisting local militias and enforcing financial “zakat” taxes, showcasing a slick web that taps into clan ties to cement and stretch their hold.
As Somalia gears up for the next election hustle, federal honchos are pushing for reforms they deem crucial for the country’s democratic journey. Yet, as regional head honchos are torn on which direction to take, some wise heads warn that forging ahead sans consensus could stir up more chaos. The touch-and-go security scene, especially in flashpoint areas like Ceel Dheer and Jubaland, casts a shadow on the feasibility of a nationwide vote.
Somalia’s federal government faces the fragile challenge of juggling political reform aspirations with the gritty reality of an entrenched insurgency and regional bickering.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
