Somalia’s Leadership Struggles: A Fragmented Nation Yearning for Unity

MOGADISHU, Somalia – In a nation where hope seems perpetually on the horizon, yet just out of reach, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stands at the crossroads, facing the challenge of uniting Somalia’s federal leaders. Recently, his efforts to gather all participants of the National Consultative Council (NCC) in Mogadishu have fallen short, highlighting deepening fissures within the fragile country.

The initial talks, scheduled for May 2, 2025, and later May 5, 2025, stumbled at the starting line, burdened by disagreements among the key stakeholders. Despite the setbacks, President Mohamud, perhaps driven by urgency, convened a meeting today with only part of the intended audience present.

Northeastern State and Jubaland, led by Said Abdullahi Deni and Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe respectively, chose to boycott the talks. This gathering was crucial, aimed at tackling national security, unity, Al-Shabaab insurgency, and economic development. Their absence casts a long shadow on the country’s prospects, revealing a divided nation grappling with unresolved fractures.

The gathering saw the presence of Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and leaders such as Ahmed Kaliye, known as Qoorqoor (Galmudug), Abdiaziz Lafta-gareen (Southwest), and Ali Gudlawe (Hirshabelle). Particularly noteworthy was the participation of Abdikadir Ahmed Aw-Ali from the newly recognized SSC-Khaatumo territory.

Still, the conspicuous absence of Northeastern State and Jubaland signals a nation struggling to maintain its coherence. Allegations fly concerning fraudulent constitutional amendments and erratic electoral laws, laying bare the wider discontent. How can a nation progress when its essential parts are at odds with one another?

Frustration brews over the uneven distribution of federal resources and decisions made sans consultation. This has resulted in a schism that undermines Somalia’s federal foundations. Critics argue that President Mohamud’s tactics resemble those of an ambush, enforcing electoral changes through state organs like parliament. His vision of transitioning from indirect elections to universal suffrage stirs both hopes and fears.

Further complicating matters is the fragmented approach to combating Al-Shabaab in the south. Losses in strategic locations, such as Adan Yabaal, point to severe infiltration, with leadership gaps being cited as a major setback.

Meanwhile, in Northeastern State, local forces combat ISIS independently. It’s a Herculean task made heavier by Mogadishu’s aloofness. Yet, victories in strategic areas like the Cal-Miskaad mountains fuel optimism, proving that local resolve can indeed turn the tide.

Jubaland’s grievances stem largely from electoral disharmonies and violent confrontations with federal troops in places like Ras Kambooni and El-Wak. These incidents appear as bids to unsettle Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe’s leadership.

“The NCC is not just another meeting; it is the engine room of Somalia’s future,” confides a government insider. “We stand at a pivotal moment. The choices made here could determine the trajectory of our nation—unity or further fragmentation?”

Federal voices remain hopeful, believing that Northeastern State and Jubaland might yet return to the dialogue table. Still, both states maintain their distance. Expressions of autonomy, such as Northeastern State’s independent electoral roadmap, highlight a stalemate fraught with accusations of unilateralism and constitutional breaches.

The stalemate presents a precarious position for President Mohamud. The weight of history bears heavily on him as predecessors have also faced similar tribulations. The international community, including the US, observes closely, occasionally hinting at withdrawing support crucial to battling Al-Shabaab.

Is President Mohamud’s grip on power slipping? Analysts suggest the sands may be shifting beneath his feet, leaving his tenure uncertain. It’s a narrative not unfamiliar in the hallowed halls of Villa Somalia, where political fortunes rise and fall, much like the turbulent waves of the Somali seas.

But hope springs eternal. Can Somalia rise above its current trials, stitching together its fragmented states into a tapestry of hope? Only time, and perhaps the wisdom drawn from understanding, will tell.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.