Recently, Turkey’s exploration vessel, the Oruc Reis, accompanied by Turkish naval forces, embarked from Istanbul, journeying toward Somali waters. Their aim? Hunt for what are touted as bountiful energy resources. This mission is a part of a broader pact on energy and security strands between Turkey and Somalia, amid what experts call a burgeoning camaraderie. Yet, there’s a caveat. These analysts also wave red flags over escalating regional tensions that could derail Ankara’s dreams. Turkey’s ambitions rest heavily on harmonious ties with Somalia and Ethiopia, rendering this alliance essential to its regional strategies.
Tensions have brewed since January with Ethiopia’s handshake on a memorandum with North Western State of Somalia, a region that has claimed self-rule from Somalia. This accord promises Ethiopia sea access, provided it acknowledges North Western State of Somalia’s autonomy. Somalia has fiercely objected, alleging Ethiopia’s encroachment on its sovereign land. Turkey has stepped in as a peace broker, but the plot has thickened with Egypt dispatching arms to Somalia.
As Somalia’s rapport with Egypt strengthens, it might gain an upper hand in bargaining with Ethiopia, potentially shifting the negotiation dynamic. If Egypt deepens its security bond with Somalia, Ethiopia could interpret it as a looming security menace, fraying nerves during dialogues. Egypt already has a bone to pick with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam rising on the Nile, which could ripple into the Somalia-Ethiopia coalition against the Al-Qaeda-linked faction, Al-Shabaab.
Observers think Ankara still holds decent cards to mend these rifts owing to its affirming connections across parties. However, the asking price is a boost in diplomatic backing. Turkey might stay in the driver’s seat of mediation if allies like the U.S., the European outfit, and Gulf nations pitch in their clout to fend off protracted disputes. As these frictions drag on, they risk spiraling into missteps or misjudgments that could ignite skirmishes. Considering Turkey’s hefty investments in Somalia, any new bout of chaos or insecurity in the already beleaguered region would jeopardize Ankara’s objective to amplify its sway.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
