UN experts: Al-Shabab poses greatest threat to peace in Somalia, region

U.N. experts warn that al-Shabab remains the most immediate threat to peace and stability in Somalia and the wider region, especially Kenya, even as the U.N. Security Council unanimously extended the African Union’s support-and-stabilization mission in the country through Dec. 31, 2026.

Despite sustained operations by Somali and international forces, the al-Qaida-linked group’s capacity “to carry out complex, asymmetric attacks in Somalia remains undiminished,” according to the panel of experts report released Wednesday.

The threat, the experts said, stems not only from al-Shabab’s persistent ability to strike — including an attempted assassination of Somalia’s president in Mogadishu on March 18 — but also from its sophisticated revenue generation, forced recruitment and an effective propaganda apparatus that underpins the insurgency.

• The Security Council renewed authorization for the African Union force, which fields 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police.
• Al-Shabab averages about six attacks a month inside Kenya, mainly in Mandera and Lamu counties bordering Somalia, the panel found.
• Tactics range from improvised explosive device blasts targeting security forces to attacks on infrastructure, kidnappings, home raids and livestock theft.
• Al-Shabab’s stated goal is to topple Somalia’s government, expel foreign forces and establish a “Greater Somalia” uniting ethnic Somalis under strict Islamic rule.
• An Islamic State affiliate in Somalia, though smaller than al-Shabab, has grown to more than 1,000 fighters by late 2024, at least 60% of them foreign recruits, posing a significant and expanding threat.

The report underscores how al-Shabab’s urban reach, including within the heavily guarded capital, Mogadishu, continues to challenge Somali authorities. Its financing — aided by systematic extortion and taxation in areas under its influence — and forced recruitment of fighters have allowed the group to regenerate manpower and sustain operations despite battlefield pressure.

Across the border in Kenya, the experts said al-Shabab has concentrated violence in the northeast, exploiting porous terrain and local vulnerabilities to strike security patrols and critical infrastructure. The breadth of its tactics — from roadside bombs to night raids — keeps pressure on communities and complicates counterinsurgency planning.

While the Islamic State affiliate, known as ISIL-Somalia, remains smaller and less resourced than al-Shabab, its expansion is notable. The panel said foreign fighters, primarily from East Africa but drawn from around the world, now make up a majority of its force. “Although small in terms of numbers and financial resources compared with al-Shabab, the group’s expansion constituted a significant threat to peace and security in Somalia and the broader region,” the experts reported.

The African Union mission’s renewed mandate — described as a “support and stabilization” force — is intended to help the Somali government secure territory, protect population centers and train national forces during a delicate transition. Council members backed the extension unanimously on Tuesday, reflecting broad concern that gains against extremist violence remain fragile without continued regional backing.

Taken together, the panel’s findings sketch a hardening landscape: al-Shabab remains entrenched and adaptive, ISIL-Somalia is recruiting and growing, and cross-border violence continues to test Kenya’s security. The report points to the need for sustained military pressure paired with financial disruption of extortion networks, protection of vulnerable communities and counter-messaging to blunt militant propaganda — a comprehensive approach to stabilize Somalia and contain the spread of extremist violence in East Africa.

By Ali Musa

Axadle Times international–Monitoring.