US Raises Alarm Over Growing Islamic State in Northern Somalia

PENTAGON — The Islamic State’s presence in Somalia has surged almost twofold over the past year, according to the chief of U.S. Africa Command.

“Northern Somalia’s situation is increasingly worrisome with ISIS numbers on the rise,” Gen. Michael Langley, AFRICOM commander, shared in an exclusive with VOA.

While Langley refrained from specifying the exact number of fighters, he noted the group’s size had approximately “doubled” in the last year. Previous figures placed their count around 200 in north Somalia.

The general also highlighted concerns over an uptick in foreign fighters joining ranks in Somalia.

Earlier this year, Somali Brigadier General Abdi Hassan Hussein mentioned to VOA that the influx of foreign Islamic State militants alone could be in the hundreds, although local authorities have yet to confirm this number.

In June, a U.S. official disclosed an American airstrike targeted Abdulqadir Mumin, the leader of Islamic State in Somalia, back in May, though Mumin reportedly survived the assault.

When queried about Mumin’s potential global leadership role in IS, Langley suggested taking such reports seriously. “ISIS claims that. Sometimes, you must regard it with gravity,” he stated.

Al-Shabab’s Tactics

The rise in Islamic State militants coincides with al-Shabab, an al-Qaida affiliate, seizing diplomatic discord between Somalia and Ethiopia to boost their own recruitment.

Earlier this year, Ethiopia and Somalia’s autonomous North Western State of Somalia region signed an MOU to use the port of Berbera, a deal rejected by Somalia. Somali PM Hamza Abdi Barre sharply criticized Ethiopia’s actions at the U.N. General Assembly for violating Somalia’s territorial integrity.

“They’ve leveraged that conflict for their benefit,” Langley conveyed to VOA.

Senior defense officials told VOA in June that al-Shabab’s numbers are back up to between 12,000 and 13,000 fighters, buoyed by ample funding and aggressive recruitment.

This political riff has strained counter-terrorism efforts between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, with Langley noting limited cooperation in operations.

“The effectiveness of any joint endeavor remains to be seen. If they reconcile, they become a potent force against al-Shabab,” he commented.

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Current Threats

Al-Shabab continues its assaults, with recent attacks targeting civilians in Mogadishu. In August, the group claimed a gun and bombing attack on a popular beach in Somalia’s capital, killing 32. More deadly bombings occurred last Saturday, close to the president’s office.

The group’s influence fluctuates. Al-Shabab has faced setbacks from South West State to the Juba River Valley but has clawed back in central areas where government forces couldn’t maintain control, senior U.S. defense officials reported.

“A reliable holding force is crucial since shadow al-Shabab entities often try to reclaim influence,” Langley explained.

Post-liberation phases are highly tenuous. It’s vital for Somalia, alongside partners like USAID, to establish local services that bolster public trust in the federal government.

“Inability to sustain liberated areas leads to regression,” he added, noting current U.S. training aims to reinforce Somali forces’ hold on these territories.

The Somali government cites regions like El Dheer and Harardhere as examples of maintained control in central Somalia.

ATMIS Transition

The African Union’s Transition Mission in Somalia will conclude this year. A new mission, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission, will replace it in 2025. Details of the mission’s composition are still under discussion between the African Union and the United Nations.

Langley clarified that the U.S. will play a minimal role in this transition, focusing on an advisory and assistive capacity rather than direct involvement.

Concerns Beyond Borders

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, north of Somalia across the Gulf of Aden, pose an additional threat. Langley mentioned their intentions to ally with al-Shabab.

“We’re vigilant, as this could destabilize the region significantly,” he warned.

If Houthis and al-Shabab pressure the Gulf of Aden, commerce might face disruptions, impacting the global economy. There’s also worry that Houthis might introduce advanced weaponry into Somalia’s conflict.

Since the Gaza conflict, Houthi militants have attacked over 80 merchant ships with missiles and drones, sinking two and killing at least four sailors. Other attacks were intercepted or fell short.

The militant campaign began after Israel’s response to Hamas’ October 7 terror attack, with Houthis claiming solidarity with Palestinians.