Somalia: Federal Troop Deployment Sparks Fears of Renewed Conflict in Gedo Region

GARBAHAREY, Somalia — In the complex tapestry of Somali politics and security, recent developments in the Gedo region have caught the attention of many. The Somali federal government has orchestrated the deployment of a significant number of security forces to this contentious area. This strategic move comes on the heels of escalating tensions that have seen the border town of Balad Hawo at the heart of conflict, deftly illustrating the fragile balance of power between the federal authorities and Jubaland’s administration.

On a seemingly ordinary Thursday evening, the atmosphere in Garbaharey, the regional capital, shifted noticeably, as a plane—one echoing the persistent drone of potential unrest—touched down. It carried officers from the emblematic Haram’ad police unit. These officers, trained in Turkey, symbolize a broader federal initiative to cement its influence in Gedo. The region, as beautiful as it is turbulent, has long been a flashpoint for political maneuvering.

Recent clashes in Balad Hawo, situated precariously near the Kenya border, highlight the volatility. Fighters loyal to Jubaland have reportedly taken the town center, a bold claim in this age-old territorial dance. Somali army units, along with operatives from the National Intelligence Service (NISA), maintain a tense watch from a base just outside the municipality. Reports suggest that the confrontation gained momentum shortly after the arrival of Abdirashid Janan—freshly appointed as the regional head of NISA—traveling from Mogadishu. Is history poised to repeat its destructive cycle, or will a new chapter emerge?

The delicate equilibrium remains precarious, with both sides relentlessly reinforcing their positions. For residents, the streets now echo with unfamiliar sounds, shadows of security forces casting doubts over an uncertain future. The narrative of Balad Hawo, now under Jubaland control following the ousting of Janan, adds another layer to this enduring saga.

“The roots of conflict run deep, nourished by both history and ambition,” muses a local historian, pondering the situation.

Central to this unfolding drama is a deeply entrenched power struggle over Gedo. The federal government and Jubaland wrangle for supremacy, their skirmish intertwined with the federal ambition to initiate a nationwide voter registration—a cornerstone of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s democratic vision. But how feasible is this vision amidst resistance? Leaders from Jubaland, Northeastern State, and various opposition figures have been vocal in their criticisms, highlighting vulnerabilities such as magnified insecurity, frail governance, and the federal structure’s diminishing presence beyond Mogadishu.

This current impasse is not an isolated incident but part of a longer story. Past efforts by the government to assert authority over Jubaland territories have often stumbled. One particular episode from late 2024 stands out: Jubaland pointed fingers at Mogadishu, alleging encouragement of an armed coup in Ras Kamboni with aims set on dislodging its regional president, Ahmed Madobe—a campaign that, due to myriad complexities, faltered.

By Friday, the air buzzed with speculation yet remained devoid of official statements about the status in Balad Hawo or further federal deployments to Gedo. For many, the silence is deafening, a stark contrast to the rhetoric of unity and peace.

What emerges next remains to be seen. Will diplomacy gain ground, or is a return to conflict imminent? Somalia, a country on the brink of transformative change, must navigate these choppy waters with empathy and vision.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.