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Mogadishu on the Brink: Somalia’s Political Conundrum
Amid a swirl of accusations and heated political rhetoric, Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, finds itself on the precipice of another political upheaval. As the country inches toward its crucial May 2026 elections, the landscape is marred by allegations, threats, and a climate of fear.
The Power Tussle
At the center of this maelstrom is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, embattled by opposition leaders who accuse him of orchestrating a power grab under the guise of reform. His proposal for a “one person, one vote” electoral system, lauded by allies as progressive, is denounced by detractors as a ploy to consolidate power.
Gathering strength, the opposition coalition comprises three former presidents, former prime ministers, and current lawmakers. They argue that Mohamud’s proposal lacks constitutional foundation and threatens the fragile equilibrium of Somalia’s federal system.
With accusations of corruption and human rights abuses, including land grabs and forced evictions, the stakes are high. Mogadishu, once again, finds itself trapped in the combustible mix of political ambition and simmering tensions.
A War of Words
The rhetoric has escalated dangerously. Defense Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, in a heated press conference, warned opponents contemplating armed resistance: “Nobody can take up a gun,” he asserted, promising dire consequences. His inflammatory remark sparked outrage, with condemnation from opposition quarters.
Abdirahman Abdishakur, a prominent opposition MP, decried Fiqi’s anti-Semitic language, questioning the possibility of fair elections under such divisive leadership. Meanwhile, his colleague, Dahir Amin Jeesow, defiantly challenged Fiqi: “Let him try, if he is man enough.”
The Extremist Underbelly
Fiqi’s comments are not isolated but part of a troubling pattern within Somalia’s political discourse. Earlier statements by Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, invoking extremist ideologies, have stoked further unrest and concern.
In the wake of violence in the Gaza Strip, Barre’s praise of Hamas and derogatory remarks about Jews at a religious gathering elucidated a dangerous normalization of extremist rhetoric at high levels of Somali politics.
Observers worry this marks an ideological infiltration into governance, with both historical and contemporary ties to Islamist networks. The political identities of leaders like Barre and Fiqi, shaped by past affiliations, reflect broader conflicts within Somali society.
The Roots of Radicalism
Somalia’s extremist challenges are multifaceted—rooted not solely in ideology but at the intersection of poverty, political exclusion, and impunity. Amid economic hardship, groups with radical tendencies have found fertile ground for recruitment. Meanwhile, networks linked to Islamist movements have embedded themselves across Somalia’s political structures.
International actors, striving for stability, often ignore these connections, prioritizing short-term strategic alliances over long-term accountability. This has emboldened extremism, allowing incendiary rhetoric to permeate unchecked.
What Lies Ahead?
As the 2026 elections approach, the choices confronting Somalia are stark. President Mohamud’s electoral reforms stand as a potential milestone for democracy, yet face fierce opposition labeling them as autocratic maneuvers.
The risk is tangible: without addressing the ideological influences within its leadership and restoring political consensus, Somalia’s electoral journey may veer into violence, undermining progress and stability.
How Somalia navigates the complex interplay of democracy, extremism, and political rivalry will define its trajectory in the coming years. It poses a question that echoes beyond its borders: Can a nation burdened by historical strife reconcile its divisions to forge a unified future?
Somalia’s path towards building a resilient political structure demands not only courage but a commitment to break free from the entanglement of radical influences and pursue an inclusive vision for its people.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
