Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt Unite in a Three-Way Alliance to Counter Ethiopia’s Growing Influence

In the spotlight, we see prominent figures like Egypt’s el-Sisi, Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki, accompanied by former Somali leader Farmaajo and Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed. 

In recent happenings in Mogadishu (AX), a fresh alliance has been brewed between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt. This unexpected coalition marks a significant turning point in the state of affairs in the Horn of Africa. The pact, unveiled during a gathering in Asmara, brings Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Eritrean leader Isaias Afwerki, and Egyptian head honcho Abdel Fattah el-Sisi together in an alliance, presumably challenging Ethiopia’s long-standing dominance in the neighborhood.

While the collaborative declaration highlights an intention to safeguard maritime lanes around the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb, simultaneously shielding regional autonomy, it also screams volumes about Ethiopia’s waning position. The emergence of this group suggests a response to Ethiopian aspirations to grab a maritime edge, an ambition that ruffles its neighbors.

“Looks like a clear challenge to Addis Ababa,” chimes Hassan Khannenje, Director at the Horn International Institute, on Focus on Africa from BBC, emphasizing how the region now finds itself amidst a bustle for not just security but coveting control over core resources and trade avenues.

In spite of its applied endeavors to fortify regional clout, courtesy of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, Ethiopia finds itself in a tight spot thanks to this novel alliance. Eritrea and Egypt bear a history packed with tensions against Ethiopia, and Somali camaraderie with them hints at an unfolding shift on the geopolitical chessboard.

Somalia’s alignment marks a fresh course away from former allegiances. In the previous tenure of 2018 under President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, strong ties were sewn with Ethiopia’s Abiy, unlocking things like visa-free jaunts for Somali folk and co-investments in maritime spots. 

Presidents Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Isaias Afwerki lock hands post-signing; their act targets fortifying safety and togetherness in the Horn of Africa and a counter to Ethiopia’s amplified sway.

The latter part of the year saw Abiy entertaining Somali’s Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Eritrean Afwerki in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, utilizing this platform to inspire a hopeful vision where the visions of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea converge, riding under solitary leadership.

“I envision a day when our nations see one helm steering all three of us,” Abiy conveyed as Farmaajo and Afwerki stood beaming at his side.

Ahmed Issa Awad, Somalia’s diplomat steering the Ethiopia-Somalia-Eritrea alliance ship, mentioned to the BBC that the primitive objective was fostering economic and social threads among the trio, eventually broadening this endeavor across the IGAD domain.

Boasting quite a few clauses, the seventh focused on sprouting partnerships in no less than four seaports and drafting interconnecting pathways.

Awad disclosed that while leaders appeared hand-in-glove, certain hidden agendas clambered to light eventually.

“Afwerki’s aim was breaking free from seclusion, whereas Abiy eyed Eritrea’s nod for the Tigray conflict support, steering the allegiance from long-term goals,” Awad clarified.

Within the Horn of Africa, political maneuvering is commendably intricate, intertwined with timeworn rivalries. Ethiopia, seen as a regional overseer, often crosses paths with Eritrea and Egypt, especially over disputes about Nile water allocation and sea access. This recent trilateral bond between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt might echo a readiness to counter Ethiopia’s pursuit in claiming its spot in the sun.

Under Isaias Afwerki’s command, nestled in three decades, Eritrea has tussled with Ethiopia heavily, a feud dating back to the Eritrean-Ethiopian tug-of-war. This altercation primarily revolved around political and geopolitical skirmishes led by TPLF, a firm grip holder in the ruling Ethiopian bloc. Even post a 2018 truce; it left marks only time could try fading.

Meanwhile, a ruffled tussle sands between Egypt and Ethiopia, the bone of contention being the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) over the Nile River, perceived as an existential threat by Egypt striding the waters.

In juxtaposition, Somalia holds its own peeves against Ethiopia, primarily brewing from the MoU rolled out with North Western State of Somalia, a juncture offering naval entry to Ethiopia, in return for North Western State of Somalia’s sovereignty nod.

The novel pact among Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt pertains to a shared synergy aligning their interests, especially forthputting security needs. Even with shifting allegiances, Ethiopia seems unfazed as its Foreign Ministry representative, Nebiat Getachew, shrugs off the gathering clouds. He reaffirms, “No tweaks in our diplomatic tango,” imparting calm over existing Eritrean relations.

Edited by: Ali Musa

Axadle international–Monitoring