Somalia Encounters a Significant Rise in Flood-Related Displacements Amid Worsening Climate Conditions

 

Mogadishu (AX) — In a startling revelation from the Habitable Project, it’s been disclosed that the specter of climate change looms large over Somalia, posing a burgeoning threat of displacement through intensified flooding. Released in July 2024, this report spells out a worrying future where flood-induced displacements could swell, moving tens of thousands from their abodes yearly. Climate change, it says, will likely ramp up flood hazards, potentially multiplying the number of displaced Somalis ninefold under bleak scenarios.

Presently, about 17,900 Somalis find themselves displaced by floodwaters annually. This unsettling scenario is predicted to worsen, particularly for coastal and river-dwelling communities such as those around the Shabelle and Juba rivers, areas known for their susceptibility to seasonal floods.

The Habitable Project sheds light on the fact that displacement in Somalia isn’t just about losing homes. Flooding wreaks havoc on key infrastructure, like schools and clinics, deepening the crisis for already vulnerable populations.

If a severe floodwave hits, up to 16,750 students—a meager 0.8% of young learners—could see their education halted due to school damages. This interruption not only intensifies current vulnerabilities but draws out the ordeal of displacement for scores of families.

“Floods have turned more frequent and disastrous for Somalia, hitting hardest those living on riverbanks,” stated Sylvain Ponserre, the report’s lead author from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). “With rising sea levels and increasingly erratic rainfall, the displacement scenario could become overwhelming without timely interventions.”

Somalia’s economy, heavily tethered to agriculture and herding, battles immense hurdles as persistent floods annihilate crops and pastures. The report points out that around 38% of the displaced emerge from rural agrarian and herding communities, who often find it exceedingly challenging to bounce back from losing their means of survival.

Comparing Risks Across the Region: Ethiopia and Sudan

Somalia plays but one part in this regional dilemma. The Horn of Africa faces profound susceptibility to flood events spurred by climate shifts. Ethiopia, for instance, grapples with around 38,500 people displaced yearly due to floods. This number could skyrocket to above 150,000 by century’s end if similar grim climate forecasts hold true. Sudan battles even loftier stakes, with its flood-related displaced numbers anticipated to surge from 170,000 annually to over a whopping 1.6 million by 2100.

The report spotlights the pressing need for regional collaboration in tackling disaster risks, as neighboring countries share similar perils. It recommends enhancements in flood management, the development of early warning networks, and sustainable town planning to ease flood impacts across the territory.

The Habitable Project cries out for swift policy action to shield Somalia’s most fragile groups from escalating displacement threats. It urges the Somali authorities and global partners to channel resources into building robust flood defenses, upgrading infrastructure, and implementing resilience-building programs for communities.

“Absent significant intervention, we’re likely to witness displacement on an epic scale,” Ponserre cautioned. “Governments must make adaptation strategies a priority to ensure that communities are ready to face these expanding challenges.”

 

Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring