Somalia’s Arta Anniversary: A Quiet Milestone Amid Deepening Political Strains
When President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud touched down in Djibouti this week to mark the 25th anniversary of the Arta Peace Conference, the trip looked at first like a ceremonial reprise of a turning point in Somali history. Villa Somalia described the visit as a working engagement “at the invitation of H.E. President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh,” noting bilateral talks and participation in the commemoration of the 2000 conference that helped birth Somalia’s so‑called Third Republic.
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But the celebration in Djibouti, hosted in the quiet diplomatic capital that has often acted as a mediator in Somali affairs, arrives at a tense moment. The commemoration’s symbolism—recovery from a near‑decade of statelessness after the collapse of the central government in 1991—collides with a present in which national reconciliation, constitutional reform and electoral credibility are all in dispute.
From Arta to Addis and back: the long road to restoring statehood
The Arta Conference convened in 2000, bringing together politicians, elders and civil society to stitch together a transitional national government after years of fragmentation. It became a crucial step toward re‑establishing institutions after Somalia’s first republic (1960–1969) fell, and a second era of military rule (1969–1991) left the country splintered.
For many Somalis the Arta process is not just a historical footnote; it represents a model in which traditional elders, clan networks and external mediators were blended to make fragile bargains that could restore at least a minimal state. Djibouti’s role as host underscores the outsized influence small neighbouring capitals have long exercised in Somali politics—mediating, accommodating diaspora delegations and hosting fragile peace processes.
Commemoration against a backdrop of contested reform
This year’s anniversary is therefore as much an occasion for reflection as it is a test of current political will. President Mohamud’s government is pursuing changes to the provisional constitution that it says will reintroduce multi‑party democracy and modernise governance. At the same time, critics worry these rewrites could be used to extend political tenures or centralise authority at a time when checks and balances remain weak.
“The President will hold bilateral talks… and later take part in the commemoration of the 25th anniversary,” the presidential office said in its statement about the visit. But beyond diplomatic niceties, the deeper debate is about trust: whether the elite can agree on the rules of the game ahead of national elections scheduled for 2026.
Mohamud’s administration has begun mass voter registration, a necessary step if Somalia is to move beyond clan‑based selection processes toward more universal suffrage. Yet sceptics—some regional leaders, opposition figures and civil society activists—argue Somalia lacks the administrative capacity and security environment to hold direct, nationwide elections. They see a constitutional refresh as a vehicle that could be manipulated to delay or reshape the ballot.
Security, clans and the spectre of Al‑Shabaab
Any constitutional or electoral changes do not occur in a vacuum. Somalia still grapples with a resilient insurgency that undermines state reach and everyday life. Al‑Shabaab’s ability to strike in towns and to contest rural authority complicates registration drives and voter mobilisation. At the same time, clan dynamics—managed through customary mediation known as xeer and the influence of elders—continue to shape how politics is practised on the ground.
These overlapping pressures—security, clan bargaining and institutional fragility—make Somalia’s state‑building efforts a precarious balance. The Arta model of mediated bargaining worked in a particular moment; the question is whether its lessons, adapted for digital communications, diaspora influence and the regional geopolitics of 2025, still apply.
Regional and international stakes
Djibouti’s hosting of the commemoration is also a reminder of greater regional dynamics. The Horn of Africa has become a theatre for strategic competition and diplomatic brokering. Neighbouring states, regional blocs and international partners have an interest in Somali stability—both to counter violent extremism and to secure maritime routes and economic corridors.
International actors have repeatedly called for broad consensus before electoral periods. Their insistence is rooted partly in the understanding that external money and political pressure cannot substitute for domestic legitimacy: peace that is stitched together by foreign hands tends to fray without local ownership.
So what comes next?
As Somalis commemorate the Arta anniversary, they face hard questions that speak to a broader global dilemma about fragile states: can institutional reform be achieved without deepening polarization? Can competitive politics be introduced where the administrative apparatus and security guarantees are still incomplete?
For an international audience, Somalia’s trajectory is instructive. It underscores how post‑conflict recovery is rarely linear; small victories—like the 2000 conference—can be followed by years of halting progress. It also illustrates how traditional governance forms can be both a resource and a constraint in designing modern constitutions.
In the coming months, the outcome of negotiations over the provisional constitution, the transparency of the voter registry, and the degree to which regional partners broker inclusive talks will determine whether the Arta anniversary is remembered as a hopeful marker of continuity—or as a nostalgic pause before a new round of contention.
Somalia’s people carry a long memory of poetic resilience and communal negotiation. As the world watches, policymakers and citizens must ask: which elements of the Arta experiment should be preserved, and which need to be reimagined for a generation that grew up in a country still seeking a stable, accountable centre?
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
