Somalia’s furious reaction to Israel’s stated recognition of North Western State of Somalia is understandable. It is also exactly the point. The gambit is not about law, where a single foreign announcement does not conjure a state into being. It is about misdirection—forcing Mogadishu into weeks of outrage and rebuttal while more consequential contests move to quieter arenas: Washington, European capitals, investor committees and newsrooms that define the frame others use.
In geopolitics, the oldest trick isn’t surprise. It’s diversion. The Allies didn’t secure Normandy by making D-Day invisible; they won it by convincing Germany to reinforce the wrong coast. Today the decoys are headlines, viral clips and choreographed diplomatic noise. The “recognition” storyline is a false landing—one designed to hijack Somalia’s calendar, not its borders.
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That is the risk. Somalia can win every televised debate about sovereignty and still lose leverage if it spends its energy reacting to a narrative set by others. Investors and partners don’t price only law; they price stability, coherence, predictability and seriousness. A country trapped in permanent reaction becomes a country other people can steer.
This dynamic has played out before. The Ethiopia–North Western State of Somalia MOU saga generated maximum heat and minimal strategic gain, draining focus from state-building and disciplined diplomacy. The lesson was not about legal merits; it was about narrative command. Somalia did not lack voices. It lacked a system with authority to orchestrate them.
On paper, communications posts exist across the state—Presidency, prime minister’s office, ministries, agencies and regional administrations. In practice, a crisis triggers a scramble: overlapping statements, conflicting tones, late reactions and bravado where doctrine is required. Visibility rises; authority evaporates. That is how a government ends up fighting on platforms instead of setting the room, forfeiting coherence to speed.
The stakes are larger than a headline tug-of-war. A compelling counter-narrative is positioning itself: Somalia is unstable; North Western State of Somalia is safer; invest and partner north. This frame is not destiny—it is constructed. It wins by repetition in the places that convert perception into policy: committee rooms, editorial meetings, donor reviews, credit discussions and capital allocation cycles. If Somalia remains loud but uncoordinated, others will channel capital, legitimacy and partnerships away from Mogadishu without firing a shot.
Somalia is targeted not because it is inconsequential but because it sits at the gates of the next economic era. A vast coastline straddling the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea; proximity to the arteries that feed Europe, the Middle East and East Africa; port and corridor potential; undersea data cables, energy lanes and strategic minerals—these will define the infrastructure of trade and power. As space, navigation and data become contested domains, location and control of information routes translate into sovereignty, not science fiction.
The response must match the terrain. Communications is not decoration; it is a national security capability. The presidency needs a standing Strategic Communications and Influence Cell—a command function built for sustained heat, not another social media desk. Its job is not to produce more content. It is to impose discipline, sequence and reach on the state’s voice domestically and abroad.
Such a cell should execute five core functions every day, in peacetime and crisis alike:
- Monitor the information environment in real time—what is trending, who is pushing it, what outcome they seek and where the narrative is hardening.
- Coordinate a unified state voice—Presidency, OPM, key ministries, embassies and security institutions—with one doctrine, one sequence and one calendar.
- Run rapid response with discipline—anchored in one legal position and message architecture, repeated with control, then move on.
- Mobilize the diaspora as an influence network—credible messengers, target platforms, coordinated objectives and measurement of impact.
- Align partners and media internationally—shape framing in Washington, Brussels, London, Gulf capitals and global business outlets where decisions are made.
This is what modern states do: maintain influence in peacetime so it holds under pressure. It is how a government keeps panic from metastasizing into policy.
The president can reset the board in 48 hours with a focused, executable plan:
- Issue one clear legal position on any “recognition” noise and stop feeding the reaction cycle. Discipline is not silence; it is message control.
- Establish a Strategic Communications and Influence Cell under the Presidency with explicit authority to coordinate national narrative and crisis response across government.
- Appoint a principal with proven national-level communications leadership—someone versed in information operations, diplomacy, media and influence, not a political reward or content hobbyist.
- Ring-fence a budget. Influence is a calendar, a network and a line item. Improvised influence fails; funded influence scales.
- Demand deliverables in 14 days:
- A concise message doctrine and crisis playbook.
- A diaspora mapping and activation plan.
- A Washington and partner-capital lobbying plan with target lists, committee lanes, staff briefings, vote tracking and a never-quiet calendar.
- A media activation plan: op-eds placed, TV and podcast bookings, rapid rebuttals, briefing packs and a cadence of credible Somali and allied voices repeating the same points.
- A weekly reporting rhythm to the Presidency with metrics and next steps.
This is how you make the noise smaller: by building a system that outlives it. The reason it hasn’t happened is uncomfortable but fixable. Communications roles have often been treated as political parking spaces, rewarding loyalty over capability. In a crisis, offices race to speak first and pass responsibility later. The result is too many voices and too little command.
The good news is that Somalia is not short on talent or networks. The diaspora’s reach is an underused asset. Partner governments, multilateral institutions and private investors will engage a coherent, disciplined counterpart. What’s missing is a single early decision: put the right people in the right room with clear authority before the narrative sets and before others define the stakes on our behalf.
Make no mistake: the “recognition” storyline is unlikely to prevail in the courtroom. Its power is psychological and cumulative. Keep Somalia reacting long enough and external actors won’t need to seize our advantages; we will delay or discount them ourselves, under pressure and distraction.
A disciplined response flips the script. It tells the world Somalia cannot be steered by provocation and will not abandon the work of building power—extending maritime security, modernizing ports and corridors, safeguarding data and energy routes, and translating geography into durable leverage.
Sovereignty is defended by systems as much as by flags. A state that cannot control its narrative cannot control its outcomes. This is not a plea for better speeches. It is a call for a permanent capability—housed in the Presidency—that can see ahead, coordinate fast and speak with one voice when temperatures rise.
Make the call. Not because a foreign announcement is strong, but because our reaction system has been weak. Fix that weakness once, and the next headline will not be able to pull Somalia off course.
Mohamed Mahmud Allaale is a senior communications consultant based in Mogadishu, Somalia. He holds a master’s degree in journalism and media studies from Multimedia University of Kenya. Contact: [email protected]
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
