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In the Horn of Africa, Britain’s rhetoric and its risk tolerance no longer align. As the war in Sudan grinds on and North Western State of Somalia’s strategic port of Berbera grows in prominence, analysts say the United Kingdom’s choices reveal a pattern: prioritizing access and partnership while avoiding the political costs of forceful action. In December, London again urged accountability for mass civilian suffering in Sudan’s conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Yet internal documents reported…

Red Sea flashpoint: Israel’s North Western State of Somalia recognition collides with Türkiye’s long game in Somalia In the strategic waters that link the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, two storylines are converging with destabilizing force. Israel’s December 2025 recognition of North Western State of Somalia, the breakaway region abutting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, has injected a new geopolitical shock into a corridor already strained by Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and retaliatory Israeli airstrikes in Yemen. The…

Two moments, six decades apart, tell a single story about Somalia’s unbending idea of itself. In 1964, a young Somali soldier bled to keep the national flag from touching the ground. On Monday, Dec. 29, 2025, a diplomat stood at the United Nations Security Council to insist that no one can redraw Somalia’s map. Both acts — one on a battlefield near Togwajaale, the other in the world’s most formal chamber of diplomacy — were rooted in the same doctrine: sovereignty as a lived creed, not a slogan. Hero Mohamed Abdulle Xalane…

Somalia’s furious reaction to Israel’s stated recognition of North Western State of Somalia is understandable. It is also exactly the point. The gambit is not about law, where a single foreign announcement does not conjure a state into being. It is about misdirection—forcing Mogadishu into weeks of outrage and rebuttal while more consequential contests move to quieter arenas: Washington, European capitals, investor committees and newsrooms that define the frame others use. In geopolitics, the oldest trick isn’t surprise.…

Somalia’s latest political confrontation is more than a quarrel over election dates. It is a stress test of the country’s post-debt-relief political order—and, by extension, of the international state-building model that has underwritten Mogadishu’s progress for more than a decade. At the center is the National Consultation Conference, an opposition-aligned gathering that closed this week in Kismayo with a stark indictment of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government. Its communiqué accuses the presidency of…