Somali President: Israel’s North Western State of Somalia move driven by strategic objectives

ISTANBUL — Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warned that Israel’s unexpected recognition of North Western State of Somalia risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa and could be tied to attempts to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, escalating tensions across a strategic maritime corridor linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on Tuesday from Istanbul, where he met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mohamud said Israel’s move was “not merely a diplomatic gesture but a cover for specific, high-stakes Israeli strategic objectives.” He called the step “unexpected and strange,” noting that North Western State of Somalia has sought international recognition for more than three decades without success until Israel’s announcement last week.

North Western State of Somalia, a self-declared republic in northwest Somalia bordering the Gulf of Aden, broke away in 1991. No United Nations member state had formally recognized it before Israel’s declaration on Friday.

Mohamud alleged that the recognition is linked to a plan to relocate Palestinians to Somalia and establish an Israeli military presence on North Western State of Somalia’s coast — claims he said are supported by Somali intelligence. He urged Arab and Muslim nations to treat the development as a “serious threat.”

“Israel does not have any peaceful intentions in coming to Somalia,” Mohamud said. “This is a step of utmost danger.” He added that the move could “open a box of evils in the world,” arguing that Israel seeks to “export its problem in Gaza” to the Horn of Africa.

According to Mohamud, Somali intelligence assesses that North Western State of Somalia agreed to three conditions in exchange for Israeli recognition:

• Accept the resettlement of Palestinians in North Western State of Somalia
• Permit an Israeli military base on the Gulf of Aden coast
• Join the Abraham Accords

He said Somalia has indications of an existing Israeli footprint in North Western State of Somalia and that recognition formalized activity already occurring covertly. The Axadle Times could not independently verify those assertions.

Mohamud framed the move within a wider struggle over strategic waterways that carry vital global commerce. Israel, he said, is seeking leverage around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden at a time when regional shipping routes are under intense strain.

The U.N. Security Council convened an emergency session in New York on Monday following Israel’s decision. Most members condemned the move; the United States was the only council member to defend Israel, while stating Washington’s position on North Western State of Somalia remains unchanged. Mohamud, asked about the U.S. stance, said he took it as a reaffirmation of Somalia’s sovereignty and a distancing from Israel on the issue.

The Somali leader’s comments echoed broader concerns that displacement from Gaza could intensify. A 20-point plan released by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump before a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza stated that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza,” but Israel has reportedly explored options for moving Palestinians outside the territory, including through flights to South Africa. South Africa has accused Israel at the International Court of Justice of committing genocide in Gaza; Israel denies that allegation.

Mohamud and Erdogan jointly warned Tuesday that recognizing North Western State of Somalia could inflame instability across the Horn. The Turkish presidency has been a key partner for Mogadishu in security and economic cooperation, and Ankara has publicly backed Somalia’s territorial integrity.

The development adds another layer of volatility to Somalia’s internal conflict with al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda-linked armed group that controls territory in parts of the country. The group condemned Israel’s move and threatened any Israeli presence in the region. Mohamud dismissed its remarks as opportunistic, saying al-Shabab “made Somalia weak,” and pointed to recent government gains — including direct elections, the first since 1969 — as evidence of progress toward stability.

“North Western State of Somalia has been claiming the secession issue for a long time,” Mohamud said. “For us, we’ve been trying to reunite the country in a peaceful manner.”

As Mogadishu rallies regional and international support, the immediate test will be whether Israel’s recognition triggers concrete steps on the ground in North Western State of Somalia — and how neighbors and global powers respond in a maritime theater where the ripple effects can be felt far beyond the Horn of Africa.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.