Somali and Ethiopian Leaders Meet for the First Time Post-Ankara Agreement to Address Security and Maritime Access
How often does a handshake capture the world’s attention? When Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met eye-to-eye, during the 38th African Union Summit in bustling Addis Ababa, their handshake was much more than a diplomatic formality. It was laden with the weighty hopes of peace and collaborative future—a substantial step forward since the historical signing of the Ankara Declaration. But let’s not put the cart before the horse: what led to this compelling moment and what does it mean for the two neighboring nations moving forward?
The seeds of discord were sown with an agreement that rattled regional stability. Ethiopia’s signature on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with North Western State of Somalia earlier in 2024 raised alarms in Mogadishu. A naval base for political recognition? Somalia saw this as a direct affront to its sovereignty, leading it to completely sever diplomatic ties. Was there any going back?
Turkey, famous for its unique bridge between two continents, took on a different kind of bridging mission. With the Ankara Declaration, the diplomatic freeze began to thaw in December 2024. Bilateral acknowledgments were exchanged; the road to reconciliation had been paved, though with curves and bends aplenty. And yet, Ethiopia’s craving for sea access introduces complexities. The clamorous cities of Somalia’s coast—Mogadishu and Kismayo—echo with possibilities, although they remain faint whispers against the backdrop of pressing security dilemmas and fearsome specters like al-Shabaab.
Will Ethiopia’s Red Sea aspirations morph into a benefit for both nations, or will they wreak havoc on a fragile peace? Diplomacy dangles in a delicate balance as Somali escalates negotiations on Ethiopian troops’ future role. ATMIS might have been a historic collaboration, yet the future now beckons under the aegis of AUSSOM. Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Omar ‘Balcad’ suggests Somalia is keen to integrate Ethiopia into AUSSOM’s structure, but the devil is always in the details, isn’t it? Tackling troop quotas and authority lines hangs like a cloud over delicate discussions.
The heart of this meeting couldn’t stray far from the economic arteries that pulse through both nations. Ethiopia needs access to the ocean as it shifts the weight of its commerce to bolster and diversify trade. Somalia, with its eye on sovereignty, could mitigate economic disparities, yet fears a precedent that gnaws at its sovereignty. Here, along the sparkling seashores and turbulent waters of diplomacy, how should they steer?
Mistrust echoes between corridors of Somali politics, opposing factions donning skepticism as thick as armor. They question any agreement that could softly tread over territorial toes. And, as history has shown us, assumptions can be the Achilles’ heel of diplomacy. Should Ethiopia reinterpret agreements that incited discord with North Western State of Somalia, pragmatism can usher this partnership into a renewed era. But, will they?
As the presidents extricated themselves from their momentous meeting in Addis Ababa, unresolved puzzles still linger on the political chessboard. Ethiopia’s MoU with North Western State of Somalia remains an active embers amid fears that the flames may rekindle. The foundational question looms— will Addis Ababa redefine its maritime ambitions, or chart a maritime strategy fraught with friction?
Reconciling past grievances and future aspirations unraveled into a tapestry of cautious optimism at the summit. As each leader departed, carrying with them the lingering warmth of that handshake, we are left wondering: in the face of skepticism and hope, which force will triumph as time unfurls?
