Somalia at a Crossroads: Navigating Political Turbulence and Insurgency
MOGADISHU, Somalia—As 2025 unfolds, Somalia finds itself entangled in a complex web of political maneuvering, security challenges, and external interventions. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is striving to consolidate power amid rising tensions with federal states and an enduring threat from the al-Shabab insurgency. These dynamics place Somalia once again at a critical juncture, balancing between fragile progress and significant risks.
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Federal Power Struggles
Somalia’s political landscape is fraught with tension as President Mohamud, in the second year of his second term, attempts to reshape the country’s federal architecture ahead of anticipated elections in 2026. The government’s recent endorsement of a new “Northeast State”—a merger between SSC-Khatumo and Maakhir—has exacerbated tensions with existing federal states, particularly Puntland.
Analysts view this move as a strategic attempt to secure electoral advantage. “It’s a calculated play to redraw the map before universal suffrage is tested,” remarked a Nairobi-based political observer. This redrawing, however, intensifies mistrust between the central government and regional powers.
The roots of this discord stretch back to proposed constitutional reforms in March 2024, advocating universal suffrage and expanded presidential powers. Puntland’s withdrawal of recognition and Jubaland’s severance of ties reflect the growing rift, further highlighted by renewed violence in the Gedo region. Clashes erupted after federal forces were deployed to counter emerging regional state formations, a move Jubaland perceives as a direct challenge.
Al-Shabab’s Persistent Threat
While political maneuvering persists, the security arena faces its own challenges. Al-Shabab launched an offensive earlier this year, reclaiming territory in Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan regions. Their surprise attack on Mahaas—a government stronghold—demonstrates the group’s enduring capability to challenge state authority.
The African Union’s new Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is working alongside Somali forces to counter these threats. While recent operations reported progress, including the killing of over 120 militants, stability remains elusive. A diplomat in Nairobi observed, “Neither the government nor al-Shabab can achieve outright victory. But both can inflict enough disruption to prevent the other from consolidating.”
Capital Unrest and Press Threats
In Mogadishu, recent clashes during evictions reveal the fragile peace in the capital. Concurrently, journalists face growing threats, with rights groups reporting increased harassment against those exposing corruption and conflict setbacks. Abdalle Mumin, Secretary-General of the Somali Journalists Syndicate, condemns such actions: “Beating, handcuffing, forcing to lie under the scorching sun and humiliating a reporter for doing his job is a blatant attack on press freedom and human rights.”
International Waters and U.S. Politics
Globally, Somalia navigates shifting alliances and external pressures. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz’s call to recognize North Western State of Somalia has sparked significant debate. While Somalia’s government has responded cautiously, China and other regional actors swiftly expressed disapproval, highlighting the strategic tussles in the Horn of Africa.
For Mogadishu, these international dynamics pose a fundamental challenge: upholding sovereignty while remaining reliant on Western support. As global priorities shift, Somalia’s foreign relations are further complicated by reduced U.S. counterterrorism engagement and increasing Turkish involvement, raising questions about the evolving foreign footprint within its borders.
Moving Forward
Somalia stands as a symbol of regional dilemmas: a nation aspiring for democratic reform yet persistently undermined by internal strife and insurgency. The government’s upcoming actions will be crucial in managing regional dissent, maintaining territorial control, and assuring international partners of its stability.
As Somali communities confront displacement and insecurity, their resilience remains a beacon of hope. The path forward is uncertain, but the world watches closely as Somalia strives to forge a stable governance model amidst formidable challenges.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
