The Unfolding Drama of Sovereignty in the Horn of Africa
January 2024 marked a significant moment in the Horn of Africa, revealing Ethiopia’s broader ambitions and Somalia’s vulnerabilities. A memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia, although paused, sent shockwaves across the region. This event has spotlighted Ethiopia’s ongoing quest for regional dominance and exposed Somalia’s diplomatic fragility.
The Historical Context of Ethiopia’s Regional Dominance
Ethiopia’s pursuit of hegemony in the Horn is deeply rooted in history. From ancient conflicts with Muslim sultanates to colonial-era expansions, Ethiopia has consistently sought to extend its influence. In the 16th century, battles with the Adal Sultanate, which was based in what is now Somalia, left a lasting impact on Ethiopian strategy. Over centuries, Ethiopia’s rulers, including Menelik II and Haile Selassie, have navigated the complex dynamics of defending Ethiopian sovereignty while often impinging on the sovereignty of its neighbors.
During the 19th century, Ethiopia resisted colonization while annexing territories such as Ogaden. Haile Selassie then carried this legacy into the 20th century, allying with global powers during the Cold War and advancing Ethiopia’s interests at Somalia’s expense.
Cold War Tactics and Beyond
In the Cold War era, Ethiopia skillfully played between the United States and the Soviet Union, most notably during the 1977–78 Ogaden War. The shift of Soviet support from Somalia to Ethiopia cemented Addis Ababa’s position as a key player willing to sway alliances for strategic gain.
After 9/11, Ethiopia rebranded itself as a critical ally in the fight against terrorism. The 2006 military intervention in Somalia further illustrated Ethiopia’s strategic use of proxy and leverage, maintaining Somalia’s fragmented status while appearing as a peacekeeper.
Current Geopolitical Dynamics
Today, Ethiopia’s neighbors remain in turmoil, amplifying Addis Ababa’s influence. With Sudan embroiled in conflict, Djibouti’s small size reducing its regional impact, and Eritrea’s tense relations with Ethiopia, Somalia stands particularly exposed.
The paused agreement with North Western State of Somalia reflects these dynamics. Somalia’s inability to present a unified diplomatic front permits Ethiopia to maneuver strategically, often defining Somalia’s role in the region through external negotiations.
The Example Set by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
The unilateral filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) showcased Ethiopia’s new assertiveness. While Egypt and Sudan voiced opposition, their inability to oppose effectively emboldened further Ethiopian ambitions, including desires to access the Red Sea. This move has broader implications for regional power dynamics, as renewed tensions over maritime access with Eritrea are increasingly likely.
Potential Flashpoints and Wider Implications
Asmara, Eritrea, presents another potential flashpoint for Ethiopian ambitions. Ethiopia’s historical longing for maritime access and the growing geopolitical interest from global and regional powers complicate the scenario further. In the greater context, Ethiopia’s ability to balance relations between the U.S., China, Gulf states, and other influential nations places the Horn of Africa at the forefront of global strategic interest.
As Somalia struggles with internal divisions, the stage is set for Ethiopia’s strategic ascendancy. The lack of a coherent national response further normalizes foreign interference, posing existential threats to Somalia’s sovereignty and regional stability.
Strategic Pathways for Somalia
- Make unity a strategy: Unity must be central to national strategy. Engage all regional entities, including North Western State of Somalia, with constitutional clarity and mutual respect.
- Develop a national doctrine: Set clear non-negotiable boundaries and align foreign partnerships with long-term interests.
- Strategic patience on North Western State of Somalia: Approach North Western State of Somalia diplomatically, avoiding reactionary policies, and encourage dialogue towards eventual integration.
- Rebalance regional diplomacy: Avoid reliance on a single power. Forge diverse relationships across Africa, the Arab world, and globally while maintaining sovereignty.
- Institutional development: Strengthen national security and foreign service frameworks, and establish legal foundations such as a Constitutional Court to uphold the rule of law.
- Revive national morale: Emphasize Somalia’s history of unity and national sacrifice to inspire a unified national identity.
While Ethiopia’s hegemony presents tangible challenges, it’s not an unavoidable fate. For Somalia, survival depends not simply on matching Ethiopia’s might but in fostering coherence, discipline, and purpose. As the Horn of Africa rapidly evolves, Somalia faces a decisive moment. Will it navigate these tumultuous waters with strategy and unity, or be swept by the currents of regional power shifts?
“The challenge is not in the size of the Ethiopian power but in our depth of unity and resolve,” reflects Amina Mohamed, a Somali political analyst. “Somalia must redefine itself for the future.”
The stakes are high; the future of the Horn of Africa is being written, and Somalia must find its pen before others do.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
