Mogadishu (AX) — The former Deputy Director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Abdisalam Guled, has raised a profound concern. He sounded an alarm that echoes through the corridors of power and over the Somali plains, warning of the increasing threat Al-Shabaab poses. His voice reverberates with urgency, urging the Somali government to take bold and decisive measures to counteract the evolving ploys of this militant group.
In a poignant articulation of the threat, Guled observed a shift in Al-Shabaab’s strategy, a maneuver designed not only to sow fear but, perhaps more insidiously, to cultivate trust among the populace. This isn’t merely a continuation of their campaign of violence; it’s a strategic pivot to tighten their grip on territories, particularly in the central and southern parts of Somalia, like Hirshabelle. The picture he paints is eerily reminiscent of tactics deployed by the Taliban in Afghanistan and insurgent groups in Syria. “They’re trying to do what the Taliban did in Afghanistan,” Guled cautioned, underscoring the situation’s critical nature.
But let’s pause for a moment and consider: What does this mean for Somalia and its government? It’s a call to action, a wake-up call to reinforce its duty—not simply as a governing body but as the guardian of its people’s safety and national integrity. The threat isn’t isolated to physical territory; it’s a challenge to the very sovereignty of Somalia. A challenge that invites the question of how prepared is Somalia to defend its soil?
Guled’s warnings carry another layer: the implicit trust between a government and its people. He urges the Somali public to hold onto their faith in the government’s capacity to safeguard them, recognizing the myriad challenges that lay in this path. It’s not just about military power but building a coalition of trust and assurance that tangible steps are being taken against Al-Shabaab.
Consider the words of Mukhtar Robow, Somalia’s Minister of Endowments and Religious Affairs. Robow, once in the inner circle of Al-Shabaab, possesses rare insights into the workings of the insurgency. He recently dismissed fears about Mogadishu falling to Al-Shabaab, confident that the group has lost the means to effectively threaten the capital. To some, this might seem reassuring, a declaration that despite intensified attacks particularly in central Somalia, these militant efforts do not herald a significant resurgence.
Yet, the journey towards assurance isn’t easy. It involves looking back as much as it looks forward. Al-Shabaab’s history is deeply entrenched, emerging like a formidable force from the remnants of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in the mid-2000s. Their campaign, persistent and deadly, has been a relentless source of concern for the Somali government and international allies. Even with the loss of significant ground and cities, their grip in rural areas and along vital trade routes leading into Mogadishu remains disconcertingly firm. Their uncanny ability to recruit, adapt, and strike has kept troops deployed, fingers on triggers, and nations watchful.
How does one contextualize such a resilient adversary? Perhaps through the simple adage: ‘What doesn’t change remains constant.’ Al-Shabaab epitomizes this volatility—a force in constant evolution, evading and engaging as needed. To engage an adversary so adept at transformation, the strategy must evolve likewise, guided by the understanding that what’s at stake isn’t merely land, but the very essence of governance and the trust bestowed by the citizenry.
As Somalia wrestles with this reality, it brings to mind the oft-quoted words of Winston Churchill during another daunting confrontation: “Success is not final, failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” Guled’s call for action is indeed a call for courage—the courage to confront, reform, and ultimately reclaim not just territory but the spirit of a nation.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
