The decision is poised to further strain relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, which have already become tense following a controversial accord between the Ethiopian government and North Western of Somaliaa uthorities for Red Sea access. Adding more fuel to the fire, Somalia signed a defense pact with Egypt, leading to the imminent deployment of five Egyptian soldiers as part of the African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). This new mission will replace the older African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), with another five Egyptian troops arriving under a separate bilateral deal.
As part of this agreement, Egyptian military aircraft touched down in Mogadishu on August 27. They delivered military supplies and disembarked officers set to be deployed to the Hiran region in Hirshabelle, as well as the Southwest and Galmudug states. The Somali government has cautioned that Ethiopian forces must exit the country by next year. However, the withdrawal is uncertain, given the significant Ethiopian military presence in regions such as Gedo, Hiran, Bai, and Bakol.
The tension is compounded by the ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia’s construction of this dam on the Nile’s main tributary has been met with strong opposition from Cairo, accusing it of being detrimental to Egyptian interests. The strained relations between Somalia and Ethiopia were further highlighted when, according to “Garowe Online,” Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reportedly refused to meet Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Beijing. Both were attending the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac), but on the sidelines held separate bilateral discussions with other African and international leaders.
Efforts to mediate the rift have proven futile. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, now the African Union’s High Representative for the Horn of Africa, tried to intervene without success. This marks the second time Mohamud has declined a meeting with Ahmed. Previously, Kenyan President William Ruto also attempted to facilitate a reunion in Nairobi, but those efforts similarly fell flat.
