Egypt Seeks Leadership Position in New African Union Mission Combatting Al Shabab in Somalia

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In an intricate dance of diplomacy, Egypt is gearing up for crucial discussions with Somalia this weekend, aiming to collaboratively guide a fresh mission by the African Union slated for deployment in the Horn of Africa soon, sources informed The National.

Egypt views its role in this new African Union (AU) mission in Somalia as pivotal—a game-changing move to solidify its strategic position and expand its influence in the area, insiders revealed.

The geopolitical maneuver is primarily to counterbalance Ethiopia, with whom Egypt has been embroiled in a long-standing dispute over Ethiopia’s colossal Nile dam project. This development poses a serious risk to Egypt’s water security, a matter akin to holding a tiger by the tail.

In response, Egypt has strategically positioned military bases in both Eritrea and Djibouti, not to mention forging military alliances with Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo among others from the Nile basin. These partnerships act like chess moves to strengthen Cairo’s presence and put the squeeze on Addis Ababa to reassess its stand regarding the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Notably, the agreement sealed last year between Egypt and Somalia stands out. It’s comprehensive, resulting in the deployment of a significant Egyptian military contingent in Somalia.

Elite soldiers from Egypt have been actively involved in training Somali forces for battling terrorism and protecting strategic state infrastructure. Moreover, they’re arming Somalia and sharing vital intelligence, joining hands as fellow Arab League members.

There’s been a surge in Egyptian troops in Somalia as they prepare to engage in the arriving AU force. This mission, accepted by the UN Security Council, is tasked with tackling the Al Shabab menace, a group aligned with Al Qaeda.

The mission, christened the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom), will step into the shoes of the trailing African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), which wrapped up its duties on December 31.

Tensions simmered between Ethiopia and Somalia about a year back when Addis Ababa inked a maritime pact with North Western State of Somalia, itching for a slice of the Red Sea action. Somalia, perceiving this as a shot at its sovereignty, responded by nixing the idea of Ethiopian troops participating in Aussom, citing ineffective mitigation of the Al Shabab threat as a major gripe.

However, warmer winds have since blown between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, thanks in part to Turkish mediation, though substantial progress on ironing out the kinks remains elusive.

Though the specific size of the Aussom force and the Egyptian faction are yet to be disclosed, sources conveyed to The National last month that Egyptians are expected to constitute about a quarter of this new mission.

Ali Balcad, Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, chatting with Bloomberg, admitted that clarity is still in short supply on the number of Ethiopian boots that might remain in Somalia. Addis Ababa has approximately 10,000 personnel in the country, including several thousand operating via bilateral agreements, essentially off the Atmis radar.

An official statement from the Egyptian military emphasized camaraderie during a tête-à-tête involving the defense ministers of both countries in Cairo, where the Somali minister, Abdul Qader Mohammed Nour, extended gratitude for Egypt’s collaboration and eagerly embraced its involvement in the fresh-faced AU mission.

Although the announcement held back on the details, sources claim the Somali minister has reassured his Egyptian counterpart, Gen Abdel Meguid Saqr, that the Egyptian force is set to supplant the Ethiopians. This move carries with it an implicit ultimatum—either the Ethiopian forces pack up or face being declared persona non grata by Somalia.

Meanwhile, engagements loom for Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who will separately meet with Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Fiqi and Eritrea’s Osman Saleh. Eritrea is an ally one moment, and an adversary the next in its erratic relationship with Ethiopia—so a meeting involving Egypt adds a layer of intrigue.

The trio will subsequently partake in a broader council meeting focused on cooperation among the three nations. As one source quipped, “Egypt plans on laying out blueprints for the new mission during these talks, mapping out its troops and hierarchy,” following up with, “The military partnership with Somalia hands Egypt a strategic advantage in steering the mission’s affairs.”

The Nile water row has perpetuated an Egyptian pursuit to nurture alliances in Africa, challenging Ethiopia’s sway, which is partly fueled by controlling a major tributary of the Blue Nile—a boon for Ethiopia as the host of the AU headquarters.

Egypt’s deep-seated conflict with Ethiopia over the Nile’s waters is underpinned by its dependence on the river for nearly all of its water needs. As one of the driest nations globally, Cairo views its river stake as an unyielding national security issue, regarding Ethiopia’s dam as a looming existential threat to its populace of over 107 million.

After more than ten years of talks, a satisfying resolution remains out of reach. Egypt argues for a binding arrangement to oversee the dam’s operations. Meanwhile, Ethiopia waves off concerns, branding the dam as a lifeline intrinsic to its national progress.

In heartfelt words, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi recently underscored the river’s importance, articulating, “The River Nile is entwined with the very existence of Egyptians; it’s nothing short of life’s essence in our land. Egypt owes its inheritance to this storied river.”

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Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring