Behind Closed Doors: FGS and the Strategic Tug-of-War in Gedo

MOGADISHU, Somalia – The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has once again set its sights on the Gedo region. This area in Jubbaland is strategically vital and has sparked tensions between Mogadishu and Kismayo, areas that had enjoyed a rare period of calm. Could these new moves be stirring the pot?

The intrigue deepens with whispers of the FGS resuming contact with Abdirashid Janan, a name not unfamiliar to controversy. Once a minister in Jubbaland, Janan came under fire for alleged crimes against humanity before stepping down. It’s noteworthy that the FGS had previously detained him under the administration of Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known as Farmajo.

“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt

Just recently, Janan found himself sitting across the table from Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre in Mogadishu. The Gedo conflict took center stage in their discussions, particularly the skirmishes at Beled-Hawo—a town that still bears the scars of conflict near the Kenya-Somalia border at Mandera.

Gedo represents more than just land on a map. To the FGS, it’s an opportunity to set up regional authorities that could defy Ahmed Islam Mohamed Madobe, the influential leader of Jubbaland. But why is Madobe in the crosshairs? His frosty relationship with the FGS, especially under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, hints at deeper political fissures.

This week, the federal government ramped up troop deployments to Gedo, focusing on the ever-contentious Beled Hawo. Meanwhile, whispers from the ground suggest Jubaland forces are far from retreating, instead jockeying for strategic positions, including an airstrip that could be pivotal.

An anecdote often shared among locals paints a vivid picture: “Last year, the region bore witness to fierce battles as Jubaland forces clashed with elite federal troops at Ras Kamboni and El-Wak. For the government, it was a bitter pill, a defeat not easily forgotten.” Yet now, another strategy seems to be unfolding—a subtler, internal maneuver aimed at weakening the Jubaland administration from within.

Ahmed Madobe, alongside Said Abdullahi Deni of Northeastern State, has vocally criticized the FGS for what they see as an erosion of federalism’s progress. Both states have been at loggerheads with the central administration, opposing proposed constitutional changes that they believe threaten regional autonomy.

These developments raise pressing questions: What does the future hold for Somalia’s federalism? Can the delicate balance between regions and the central government be sustained, or are we on the brink of a new era of strife?

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring

Source: AXADLETM