Djibouti’s succession drama: Guelleh’s possible return, clan rivalries and what it means for a strategic Horn state
As Djibouti edges toward its April 2026 presidential vote, the delicate balance of clan politics, family influence and constitutional tinkering that has sustained President Ismail Omar Guelleh’s two-decade rule is again in the spotlight. Long considered one of the Horn of Africa’s few pillars of stability, Djibouti now faces a familiar dilemma: preserve continuity through established networks, or open space for a new generation in a country that hosts foreign fleets and controls one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints.
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Old hands, new lines
Reports that a longtime presidential aide, identified in local media as Alexis Mohammed Gueldon, has resigned have fuelled speculation that Guelleh — who has governed since 1999 and oversaw the removal of term limits in 2010 — may yet seek to extend his hold on power. At the same time, attention has focused on Naguib Kamil, a stepson of the president, whom many see as being groomed to inherit the mantle.
That apparent succession plan has opened fault lines along Djibouti’s central fault — clan identity. The president belongs to the Issa/Mamasan, the dominant group in the country’s politics, while Naguib is from the Afar, a community that makes up a substantial minority of the population. Political analyst Rashid Abdi argued publicly that “the clan favoured an Issa to replace Ismail Guelleh and to maintain continuity/traditional dominance of the Issa,” and suggested that Gueldon — himself identified with the Issa/Mamasan — may have been advanced by that network to counterbalance a stepson candidacy.
Constitutional manoeuvres and age limits
The legal obstacles are clear: Djibouti’s constitution sets an age cap for presidential candidates. Guelleh, born in 1947, would be beyond that limit by 2026, and observers now say a further constitutional change to remove the age threshold is conceivable should the incumbent decide to run. Such maneuvers mirror a wider regional pattern in which leaders alter rules to widen their options — a trend that has drawn international scrutiny and domestic unease across Africa.
Changing the constitution again would not be politically neutral. It risks inflaming Afar grievances, analysts warn, especially if the move is seen as designed to cement Issa dominance or to block a credible Afar contender. For many Djiboutians, concerns are not merely constitutional but existential: who controls the state’s instruments, how resources and appointments are distributed, and whether politics is open to peaceful change.
Politics in the shadow of strategic stakes
Djibouti’s internal debates carry outsized external consequences. The tiny nation on the Red Sea — home to French, American and Chinese military facilities, and a linchpin for international shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb — is prized for its predictability. Western and regional capitals prize that stability; commercial shipping companies prize it too. That makes the cost of unrest disproportionately high.
As one veteran diplomat put it in private conversations over the years, “Djibouti’s stability is not a luxury; it’s a global public good.” But that stability has been sustained by a political compact built on patronage, elite deals and periodic legal revisions. The question now is whether that compact can be adapted without rupturing the fragile social bargain between Issa and Afar communities.
Succession, clan politics and legitimacy
Succession through family ties is not unique to Djibouti. Across the continent and beyond, leaders have cultivated close associates or relatives as heirs, betting that institutional continuity will safeguard economic and security partnerships. But those strategies come at a cost. They can erode legitimacy, exacerbate identity-based grievances, and limit the talent pool for future leadership.
Mohamoud Ali Youssouf, an Afar who served as foreign minister and has been chairman of the African Union, was recently eased out of his post in ways that observers saw as smoothing the path for Naguib and narrowing other options. Such moves, while tactical, feed narratives of exclusion among groups feeling sidelined.
What to watch
- Constitutional debate: Will the government propose removing the age limit, and how transparently will that process be conducted?
- Clan alignments: Will the Issa/Mamasan consolidate behind the incumbent or rally behind another Issa candidate such as Alexis Gueldon?
- Afro-Issian relations: How will the Afar respond to perceived encroachments on their political standing, and could that translate into protests or regional pressure?
- International response: How will foreign partners, whose military and commercial interests hinge on Djibouti’s stability, react to overt moves to alter the political rules?
Questions for the future
Djibouti’s moment of choice raises broader questions about governance in strategically important states. Can political systems that have depended on a tight elite settlement be reformed to allow credible succession without sparking instability? How should external powers balance the pragmatic desire for stability with support for inclusive, legitimate processes?
For Djiboutians, the answers will shape not just who sits in the presidential palace but how power is shared in a country that punches far above its weight on the world stage. As events accelerate toward 2026, the challenge will be to manage transitions in ways that reduce tension rather than entrench divisions. The world, watching from across oceans and bases, will have to decide whether to encourage reform or merely applaud continuity.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
