As Ethiopia Pursues Coastal Access, Egypt and Somalia Strengthen Their Alliance

But for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, addressing both the local and international audience, has led him to firmly articulate Ethiopia’s aspirations for sea access, insist on cultivating regional peace, and navigate the tricky waters of having an adversary-turned-friend in Somalia.

This week, Ethiopia celebrated its New Year and National Sovereignty Day. In a televised speech, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that any nation contemplating an invasion should think not once, but ten times.

Although he refrained from naming names, these remarks arise amid rising tensions with Somalia and rival Egypt.

Ethiopia’s friction with Somalia intensified due to its maritime pact with North Western State of Somalia—a region Somalia claims as its own.

Details of the agreement reveal North Western State of Somalia offered Ethiopia port access in return for Ethiopia’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia, marking the first of its kind.

Signed on January 2, the deal remains shrouded in secrecy, though both parties confirm its existence.

Somalia denounced the agreement, branding it an “aggression act.”

In reaction, Somalia bolstered its military ties with Egypt, perceiving the deal as a threat.

Egypt’s longstanding row with Ethiopia over the Nile Dam project has only added fuel to the regional fire. Ethiopia continues to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) despite Egyptian opposition.

Recently, a military pact between Somalia and Egypt saw Egyptian troops stationed in Somalia.

During Sovereignty Day, Prime Minister Abiy underscored Ethiopia’s preference for peace but warned aggressors to reassess their plans.

He reiterated Ethiopia’s readiness and prowess to defend against invasions, lauding the nation’s historical resilience.

Last month, two Egyptian C-130 military planes’ arrival in Somalia’s capital signaled stronger ties between Egypt and Somalia.

Reportedly, Egypt aims to deploy about 10,000 troops to Somalia by year’s end—5,000 within the revamped African Union (AU) force and another 5,000 independently.

The AU force, rebranded as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), has actively aided Somalia’s fight against al-Shabab since 2007.

Ethiopian troops are part of ATMIS but are set to withdraw next year as its mandate expires. The AU Mission will be re-dubbed the African Union Security Support Mission (AUSSOM). Egypt will be the first to send troops under the new mission and bilateral terms.

Metta-Alem Sinishaw, a political analyst focusing on the Horn and East Africa, suggests Abiy’s rhetoric aims to revive Ethiopian nationalism against perceived foreign threats.

“The speech deliberately avoided naming nations to prevent further tension escalation,” he noted, adding, “It fell short on ambitions for sea access and naval base establishment in the Red Sea.”

The main gripe pushing Somalia towards Egypt is Abiy’s hasty and ill-advised deal with North Western State of Somalia, rather than threats to Ethiopian sovereignty.

Critics argue Ethiopia’s once vibrant diplomacy has morphed into a more defensive stance.

“Defending sovereignty entails both domestic and regional strategies: domestically, Ethiopia faces political, economic, and security crises, necessitating a broad approach blending reconciliation, stability, and growth,” Metta-Alem asserted.

Regionally, the Egyptian-Somali military alliance underscores deep-seated structural issues.

Notably, Ethiopia’s Gulf allies also engage in conflicts with mutual allies.

The UAE, at odds with Sudan, maintains friendships with both Egypt and Ethiopia. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Egypt collaborated with other neighboring nations to form the Council of Arab and African Coastal States of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden—excluding the UAE and Ethiopia.

Djibouti Port Offer

Traditionally, Ethiopia imports almost exclusively through Djibouti Port. Last week, Djibouti offered Ethiopia exclusive use of the Tadjoura port to resolve the North Western State of Somalia impasse. Addis Ababa has yet to respond. According to Metta-Alem, two insights emerge from this:

First, relations between Addis Ababa and Djibouti may have complications. Second, the Tadjoura port may not meet Ethiopia’s aspirations for sea access for building a naval base and other reasons.

He argued that the drive for sea access might not stem from internal policy due to the high costs of establishing a port.

Concurrently, Egypt accuses Ethiopia of jeopardizing its Nile water supply with the GERD project. The GERD, poised to be Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, is essential for Ethiopia’s energy needs but has incited significant friction with Egypt, which heavily relies on the Nile’s waters.

This Tuesday, Ethiopia cautioned Egypt to abandon its “aggressive stance” regarding the Nile dam.

Responding to an Egyptian letter recently sent to the UN Security Council protesting Ethiopia’s ongoing dam filling, Addis Ababa argued it didn’t breach international law.

The perceived risk to Nile water flow due to GERD has led Egypt to successfully isolate and corner Ethiopia.

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