Egypt and Eritrea Tighten Ties as Sudan’s Conflict Reshapes the Horn
CAIRO — In a meeting that underscored shifting alliances across the Horn of Africa, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi this week publicly reaffirmed Cairo’s backing for Eritrea’s sovereignty and signaled a renewed push for deeper economic and strategic cooperation with Asmara.
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The talks, held in Cairo and attended by both countries’ foreign ministers, were framed by the Egyptian presidential office as an effort to bolster investment links and “support [Eritrean President Isaias] Afwerki’s efforts to advance national development,” according to presidential spokesman Mohamed el‑Shennawy. Afwerki, in turn, praised Egypt’s role in promoting stability across the Horn and said Eritrea looked forward to broadening coordination on regional and international questions.
A pragmatic embrace in a volatile neighborhood
At face value, the meeting was diplomatic routine — leaders exchanging assurances and pledging closer economic ties. But set against the backdrop of Sudan’s grinding conflict and the larger scramble for influence along the Red Sea corridor, the Cairo‑Asmara convergence carries weight beyond bilateral trade agreements.
Both presidents “reviewed the situation in Sudan,” the spokesman said, and voiced alignment on the need to end the fighting. Notably, the two leaders expressed support for Sudanese national institutions — specifically the Sudanese Armed Forces — and rejected moves to create parallel military structures. That public position places Egypt and Eritrea on the same side of one of the region’s most destabilizing conflicts.
For Egypt, which has repeatedly framed the turmoil in Sudan as an immediate security concern, the partnership is a hedging strategy. The collapse of order in Sudan threatens border stability, refugee flows and critical water security for Egypt — which depends on the Nile for roughly 90% of its freshwater. For Eritrea, long isolated diplomatically and burdened by international scrutiny over human rights and indefinite national service, closer ties with a powerful neighbor bring legitimacy and potential investment.
Red Sea geopolitics and strategic ports
The renewed embrace also highlights the strategic premium of the Red Sea. The narrow shipping lanes linking Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal handle roughly one‑tenth to one‑eighth of global maritime trade, making control, influence and security in adjacent littoral states a matter of international consequence.
Eritrea’s ports, notably Assab and Massawa, have been sought by outside powers in recent decades. The United Arab Emirates used Eritrean facilities during its intervention in Yemen; Djibouti hosts multiple foreign military bases; and other external actors have been cultivating ties across the Horn. Egypt has its own naval interests in the region and sees a stable, friendly Eritrea as an asset for Red Sea security, maritime trade protection and broader regional leverage.
Competing regional currents
The Cairo‑Asmara rapprochement adds to a pattern of pragmatic alignments in the Horn, where fragile states, assertive capitals and external powers are constantly recalibrating. Since 2018, Eritrea has emerged from near‑pariah status after a thaw with Ethiopia, though its domestic record — including long mandatory national service and tight political controls — continues to draw criticism from rights groups. Meanwhile, Egypt under Sisi has pursued a more muscular foreign policy, often in lockstep with Gulf partners, prioritizing security, regime survival and control over strategic waterways.
That mix of interests has implications for Sudan. Publicly backing the Sudanese Armed Forces aligns Cairo and Asmara against irregular or militia alternatives that could redraw boundaries and encourage rival patronage networks. But it also raises questions: Will external backing for one side prolong fighting? Can regional actors push for a political settlement that restores civilian governance and addresses humanitarian collapse?
What this means for people on the ground
For millions, the consequences are immediate. More than two years into the Sudan conflict, humanitarian needs are acute: hospitals shuttered, food prices rising, and millions displaced internally or seeking refuge across borders. Neighbors like Egypt and Eritrea must balance security concerns with the obligation to relieve human suffering — a tension that has often proven difficult to reconcile.
Investments and port deals can bring jobs and infrastructure, but they rarely address fragile governance or the deeper causes of conflict. And for Eritreans — many of whom have long contended with enforced service and limited freedoms — the promise of economic development under a tightening relationship with Cairo may offer opportunities but not guarantees of reform.
Questions ahead
As the Horn’s political map shifts, observers should watch a few key questions: Will Cairo’s support for Eritrea translate into concrete economic projects, or remain largely rhetorical? Can the two countries use their alignment to press for a negotiated end to the fighting in Sudan, or will their preferences entrench one side and prolong violence? And how will other external players — from Gulf monarchies to global shipping powers — react to a deeper Egypt‑Eritrea axis influencing Red Sea security?
The meeting in Cairo was more than a photo opportunity. It was a sign that as conflicts around them burn, regional capitals are renewing bonds that could reshape security and commerce in a corridor that matters to the world. Whether those ties will calm the region or recalibrate rivalries depends on actions that follow the pledges — and on whether regional leaders choose to put humanitarian relief and political compromise ahead of narrow strategic gain.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
