Mogadishu (AX) — In an ambitious stride towards enhancing regional peace, the African Union alongside the Federal Government of Somalia, has sanctioned the inclusion of 2,500 Ethiopian troops into a redefined peacekeeping mission. This decision underscores a significant endeavor to quash the relentless aggression of Al-Shabaab, a group tethered to the al-Qaida network.
The Ethiopian contingent falls under the African Union Support Mission in Somalia, commonly referenced as AUSSOM. Launched at the dawn of this year, AUSSOM’s journey is set to traverse terrain until 2028. But what propels the new mandate? A United Nations Security Council resolution framed late in the previous year steers AUSSOM’s objectives. It’s chiefly attuned to bolstering Somali security forces, prioritizing zones wrested from the control of Al-Shabaab insurgents. Contemplating the groundwork laid by ATMIS with its expansive troop presence, the current authorization sees a more modest figure beneath 12,626 soldiers as Somalia veers toward a homegrown oversight of military maneuvers on its turf.
Uganda leads the charge, dispatching 4,500 of its force’s finely tuned personnel. On their heels, Egypt marks its route with anticipated numbers close to 1,100, while diminutive yet stalwart allies such as Djibouti and Kenya inject strength with 1,520 and 1,410 troops, respectively. It’s a symphony orchestrated by the Somalia Operations Coordination Committee (SOCC), which ensures the smooth deployment of peacekeeping battalions.
The UN Security Council pinpoints that, as of August 2024, the soil beneath Somali skies bore the footsteps of less than 13,000 ATMIS warriors. However, the tale of Ethiopia’s involvement skims the fringes of intrigue. A perplexing pact with North Western State of Somalia threatened to become a deterrent—offering access to the Red Sea’s embrace in return for the acknowledgment of sovereignty. Initially, Somalia’s leadership balked, mired in the quagmire of sovereignty disputes. Yet diplomatic liaisons—crafted by Turkish ingenuity—ushered a reconciliatory twist, sealing unity in what resonates as the Ankara Declaration.
Beyond the rattle and hum of the military, the pulse of peace is invigorated by the presence of hundreds of police officers from Egypt, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. These custodians of order scatter across pivotal cities, stitching the safety net of stability in Mogadishu, Jowhar, and Baidoa.
This expanding Egyptian foothold, marked by a defense accord that dangles the potential of hosting up to 10,000 Egyptian troops, subtly reshapes the Horn of Africa’s tableau. Egyptian overtures emphasize stabilization—yet analysts weave a narrative over broader intercontinental chess games: particularly the GERD conundrum, which Cairo appraises as a hydrological threat. Are these steps a tangible move to cultivate regional alliances, countering Ethiopia’s escalating maritime ambitions?
For Somalia, foreign military engagements are a delicate balance. Leaders voice an unyielding demand: pacts fortifying troop deployments must uphold Somalia’s sovereignty and integrity. With a challenging history that saw Ethiopia deploy surplus soldiers under ATMIS, Somalia now seeks transparency—ensuring future forces march under clear-cut agreements like the new Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Ethiopia, crafted to secure Somalia’s strategic interests.
The financial underpinning of these missions presents its own obstacles. A hybrid fiscal framework, split between United Nations contributions (capped at a robust 75%) and African Union with global partners input, faces scrutiny. U.S. concerns echo over fiscal sustainability, yet the European Union, Turkey, and China maintain their roles as benefactors.
Inside Somalia, discord lurks beneath federal surface layers. While factions lean on foreign might for local armament potential, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud propounds a “Somali-led” peacekeeping paradigm. Is this the crucible that will forge resilient government institutions, someday fostering autonomous security prowess?
Amidst the shifting sands of operational strategy, alliance-driven operations are currently unspooling across territories still swept under Al-Shabaab’s shadow, yielding a volatile yet hopeful narrative.
Al-Shabaab, with its stranglehold in Somalia’s central and southern belts, persists despite nearly twenty years of international interventions. Its audacity, illustrated by a chilling strike on President Mohamud’s convoy this March, has rekindled a global counteroffensive. A blitz elevating in intensity, embodied by U.S., Turkish, and Ethiopian aerial sorties, aimed at eclipsing the clout of this insurgent behemoth.
