Federalism was crafted to set up a system for sharing power and resources among different regions, but it’s been a wild ride. States flex their independence, clashing with the central powers. Take Northeastern State, for instance. It’s decided to handle its own business until a national vote, highlighting the power tug-of-war.
There’s the 4.5 clan system, a formula doling out political goodies among Somalia’s main clans and minorities. It has brought some calm, allowing elections and smooth power swaps. Yet, it also fuels a cesspool of clan politics, corruption, nepotism, and vote-rigging, crippling the government’s effectiveness.
Despite the 4.5 system’s stabilizing façade, governance issues persist. Corruption and favoritism are rife, and central power barely stretches beyond Mogadishu. This chaos raises questions about the federal government’s power and legitimacy.
Northeastern State was the trailblazer, invoking Article 4 of its constitution to self-govern as a backlash to the federal government’s solo decisions. By not consulting on key national issues, Northeastern State believes the central government lost its legitimacy, setting a rebellious precedent for other regions.
Northeastern State’s stance of not recognizing the federal government’s legal and political standing has deepened the chasm. Their gripes about solo decisions mirror broader discontent across states, hamstringing the federal government’s governance ability and legitimacy.
President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s controversial constitutional push in parliament, sans proper consultation, further dents the federal government’s credibility. This move, during a tense face-off with Ethiopia, tarnished the parliament’s reputation and political proceedings.
Timing issues—like the amendment during Ethiopian belligerence and a shady deal with North Western of Somalia—further muddled the political scene. Strong leadership to unify the nation against external foes was undercut, feeding the narrative that the federal government isn’t acting in the nation’s best interest.
The Foreign Ministry’s directive to close Ethiopian consulates in Northeastern State and North Western of Somalia hit a wall of defiance as the consulates stayed open, spotlighting the federal government’s limited clout.
Recently, a security advisor to President Mahmoud declared Ethiopian troops should exit by end-2024. The Southwest state’s security minister balked, throwing a wrench into the federal security schematics post-ATMIS troops’ departure, signaling wider coordination issues with regional leaders.
The federal government’s struggle to deploy the Somali National Army (SNA) to Jubbaland and the Southwest exemplifies its shaky control over the nation. No SNA presence in Northeastern State or North Western of Somalia since the ‘90s collapse compounds this.
The political rift between federal leadership and states is at a historic low. The federal government played no part in Northeastern State’s recent elections and seems clueless about upcoming polls in Jubbaland and the Southwest, emphasizing its waning influence beyond Mogadishu.
The Somali Federal Government is grappling with monumental hurdles to maintain its legitimacy and relevance. Without sweeping changes, it’s on a downward spiral. Future stability and unity hinge on addressing these issues and cultivating a cooperative federal system.
Mukhtar Ainashe.
Oslo, Norway.
