Ukraine will need roughly €500 billion to rebuild from Russia’s war, a joint assessment by the World Bank, United Nations and European Union said, putting a price tag nearly three times the country’s annual economic output on nationwide recovery as the conflict enters its fifth year.
The estimate — about $588 billion — is 12% higher than last year’s figure, reflecting a winter of relentless strikes on the power grid that left millions without heat or electricity. The damage tally runs through the end of December, the report said, noting the destruction has continued into this year with additional waves of missiles and drones that have wiped out some power plants.
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More than one in seven homes across Ukraine has been damaged or destroyed since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, according to the assessment. The costliest needs are in transport, at about €81 billion, followed by energy and housing at roughly €76 billion each. Clearing debris and de-mining — described as “explosives hazard management” — will require another €24 billion.
Front-line regions face the steepest bills. Donetsk and Kharkiv will need the most investment to recover, while the capital, Kyiv, will require more than €13 billion, the report found. Entire towns and cities have been reduced to rubble, the authors said, underscoring the scale and duration of the reconstruction challenge.
Ukraine’s Western partners have allocated more than €340 billion in financial, military and humanitarian assistance since the invasion, according to the Germany-based Kiel Institute, but Kyiv says much of that lifeline keeps the country functioning — funding defense, basic services and macroeconomic stability — rather than long-term rebuilding. A planned EU loan package of about €90 billion will largely cover military needs, with the remainder for general budget support, the bloc said last month.
The reconstruction estimate arrives amid another surge of attacks. Overnight, Russian strikes killed three people and wounded several others, regional authorities said. In the southern Odesa region, drones hit industrial, energy and civilian infrastructure, killing two people and injuring at least three, regional governor Oleg Kiper said on Telegram.
In the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, a drone strike on industrial facilities killed a 33-year-old man and wounded another, regional chief Ivan Fedorov said. The industrial hub, not far from the front line, faces regular bombardment as Moscow intensifies pressure on Ukraine’s southeast.
Further north, a missile hit Kharkiv’s Kholodnogirsky district, Mayor Igor Terekhov said. He provided no immediate casualty figures as emergency crews assessed the damage. The latest attacks followed a barrage of missiles and drones Sunday that struck energy infrastructure, railways and residential areas across the country, with Kyiv among the hardest hit. One man was killed and more than a dozen people were wounded in and around the capital, authorities said.
Officials involved in drafting the recovery assessment have repeatedly emphasized that rebuilding Ukraine’s energy system is central to any sustainable recovery — both to restore basic services and to support industry, transport and housing repairs. With large swaths of the grid damaged and repeated attacks targeting generation and transmission, the report said reconstruction planning must move in lockstep with front-line realities and air-defense capacity.
The authors also urged early, visible progress — from de-mining farmland to repairing schools and clinics — to maintain public resilience and investor confidence. But the headline number, they warned, underscores a longer horizon: Ukraine’s recovery will be measured in years, and will hinge on steady financing, security guarantees and continued protection of critical infrastructure.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
