Airfares from Europe to the United States have plunged to levels not seen since prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. This trend has been largely driven by a noticeable decrease in travel from Western Europe, a behavior that is anticipated to persist at least until next month.
- Advertisement -
According to preliminary data from the US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), overseas arrivals to the United States dipped by 2.8% in May compared to the previous year. Interestingly, while travel from Western Europe fell by 4.4% during this period, the numbers for Eastern Europe reflected a 4.6% increase.
Looking ahead, forward bookings indicate that this trend may continue, with total inbound bookings to the US in July reported to be down 13% year-over-year, according to OAG Aviation, an analytics firm.
The strong dollar has also played a role in discouraging travel. For instance, in March, Western European travel to the US saw a significant decline of 17% year-over-year, as highlighted by the NTTO.
Meanwhile, average round-trip economy airfares for over 50 routes from the US to Europe have dropped by an average of 7% compared to the previous year. Notably, fares for a flight between Atlanta, Georgia, and London plummeted by 55%, as reported by Cirium, another aviation analytics firm.
As US consumers engage in bargain-hunting, often finalizing their travel plans closer to departure dates, the decreased demand from Europe has further contributed to lower travel costs. Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, aptly noted, “Fewer seats filled by European travelers to the US, and a slower pace of growth in US outbound to Europe than last year, will tend to cast 2025 as a tougher year to make money on transatlantic routes.”
This summer, travelers can expect round-trip ticket prices from the US to Europe to be down 10% compared to last year, according to the travel booking app Hopper. The average fare sits at $817 (€709) per ticket, aligning with prices last seen in the summer of 2019 before the pandemic’s impact.
Major airlines, including Air France KLM and Germany’s Lufthansa, are bracing for slower activity ahead. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr stated that the company anticipates weaker demand in the third quarter. Similarly, Air France KLM CEO Ben Smith mentioned a “slight pullback” in transatlantic traffic, indicating they would reduce prices to maintain full cabins.
Despite the decline in European travelers heading to the US, airlines such as Lufthansa and United Airlines report that increased demand from US travelers heading to Europe is helping to balance the situation. United Airlines noted a 6% drop in international bookings from Europe in the first quarter but indicated that US-originating demand compensated for the downturn.
Rival Delta Air Lines confirmed that 80% of its long-haul international demand is generated from the US, with fares in this market reportedly “significantly higher” than those elsewhere. In response, Lufthansa plans to promote its transatlantic flights more aggressively to Americans, especially as travel from Western Europe had seen a brief recovery with a 12.1% surge in April, only to decline again in May.
As of mid-May, the projection for international departures from US airports this summer appears promising, with a 4.3% increase in scheduled flights, according to Hopper. “We feel really good about the transatlantic market,” stated American Airlines CFO Devon May at a Wolfe Research transportation and industrials conference this past May.
Clearly, the landscape of transatlantic travel remains dynamic, and as eventful as ever, offering unique opportunities for both travelers and airlines alike.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
