Sweden warns Russia stepping up ‘hybrid’ threat activity, raising risk in Baltic region
Russia has intensified hybrid threat activities and is demonstrating a greater willingness to take risks around Sweden, the head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) said as the agency released its annual threat review.
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“Russia has, in certain cases, stepped up actions and increased its presence, and perhaps with a greater risk appetite, in our vicinity,” MUST chief Thomas Nilsson said. He added he expects the trend to continue “unfortunately,” regardless of whether Moscow succeeds or fails in its war aims elsewhere, including in Ukraine.
“A certain desperation can set in, where you push even harder to reach your goals,” Nilsson said. Conversely, he warned, success on the battlefield could also fuel more assertive behavior: “That can lead to an increased appetite for risk.”
The assessment underscores a deteriorating security environment for Sweden that has worsened in recent years, particularly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. MUST’s review identifies Russia as the primary military threat to Sweden and to NATO and says the danger is likely to grow as Moscow channels more resources into its armed forces.
“Alongside resources for the war in Ukraine, Russia is reinforcing its resources in the Baltic Sea region, as it is a strategically very important region for Russia, both economically and militarily,” the review states. It says that build-up “has already begun,” while noting the pace will be shaped by the course of the war in Ukraine, the state of Russia’s economy and the country’s relations with China.
Nilsson’s comments point to an elevated risk landscape marked by a mix of pressure tactics, military signaling and activities below the threshold of open conflict—commonly grouped under the label “hybrid” threats. MUST did not detail specific incidents but made clear that Russia’s posture in Sweden’s neighborhood has grown more active and more willing to court escalation.
The warning arrives as European militaries work to shore up resilience across the Baltic Sea region, a hub for critical infrastructure, energy routes and maritime trade. MUST’s analysis places that maritime theater at the center of Russia’s strategic calculus and signals Stockholm’s expectation of sustained tension there.
While the review stops short of predicting exact scenarios, its central conclusion is unambiguous: Russia’s military prioritization of the Baltic area and its broader willingness to accept risk are converging to heighten pressure around Sweden. The agency links future Russian tempo to three variables—developments in Ukraine, economic capacity and ties with China—each of which could accelerate or slow Moscow’s regional build-up.
MUST’s findings reinforce earlier Swedish statements that the country’s security outlook has trended downward year after year since 2022. Nilsson’s remarks add a sharper edge, suggesting the Kremlin’s calculations—driven by desperation if it falters or emboldenment if it succeeds—could translate into more frequent and bolder activity close to Sweden’s borders.
The review did not announce new Swedish policy measures, but its framing is likely to inform defense planning and allied coordination in the months ahead, particularly around surveillance, deterrence and protection of critical assets in and around the Baltic Sea.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
