Europe’s winter strategy for Ukraine: solidarity, symbolism and unfinished business
When Volodymyr Zelensky stepped from the car onto the red carpet at Downing Street and later accepted a formal welcome at Windsor Castle, the choreography was unmistakable: the United Kingdom wanted to make a simple, public point. In the chill of an escalating war, Britain and a clutch of European capitals wished to show Ukraine that they would not drift away.
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“Ukraine’s future is our future. What happens in the weeks and months ahead is pivotal for the security of the UK and all our allies across NATO and beyond. So we are determined to act now,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared after hosting leaders — many remotely — at a meeting billed as the “Coalition of the Willing.” That phrase, and the warm embraces on display, were meant to carry reassurance as much as policy.
A symbolic stage
The pomp of Windsor and the Downing Street embrace offered a kind of diplomatic theatre familiar from earlier phases of this conflict. These moments matter: where swords and missiles do the grinding, ceremonies and handshakes shape perception and political will. For Zelensky, the optics are as useful as any press statement — a reminder to his people and to the world that Western capitals are still aligned behind his cause.
But the gathering was not merely pageant. More than 20 leaders joined the talks, and what emerged was a pragmatic list of measures intended to help Ukraine through a harsh winter and, crucially, to strengthen its hand should negotiations ever be possible.
What was agreed — and what remains tentative
Concrete pledges were modest but strategically focused. Starmer announced an acceleration in the delivery of “140 light-weight multirole missiles” being produced in Belfast — a sign of stepped-up military logistics that aim to blunt Russian advances during winter. The Netherlands promised increased energy assistance; Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she hoped a plan to convert immobilised Russian assets into a €140 billion loan for Ukraine could be made reality “by Christmas Eve.”
“The idea of getting Russia to pay for the damages they have done in Ukraine is the only way forward,” Frederiksen said, acknowledging the technical and legal hurdles but framing the question as fundamentally political.
Irelands’ Taoiseach Micheál Martin, speaking remotely, echoed Zelensky’s insistence that the war must end at the negotiating table and floated the possibility of Irish participation in peacekeeping should a ceasefire be reached. These are the sorts of contingencies European capitals are now mapping out: how to support Ukraine militarily, economically and diplomatically while preserving options for a negotiated settlement.
The absent superpower — and the limits of a Europe-first coalition
Notably absent in the meeting’s formal lineup was the United States. The coalition’s organizers stressed that Washington’s buy-in remains essential for any credible security guarantees to Ukraine. In recent days Washington had both tightened sanctions — targeting two major Russian oil companies — and appeared at times ambivalent over the provision of longer-range weapons, a vacillation that has unnerved Kyiv.
The mixed signals from Washington highlight a deeper challenge: European capitals can step up, but the balance of deterrence still depends heavily on American willingness to remain engaged. That dependence has encouraged a broader European conversation about strategic autonomy — whether the bloc can mobilize industrial capacity, funds and political unity to sustain a prolonged fight. The Belfast missile order is a small but telling example: rebuilding supply chains and production lines inside Europe to reduce fragility.
Sanctions, frozen assets and the prospect of negotiations
Brussels adopted what it described as a 19th round of sanctions, while voices at the meeting set their sights on converting frozen Russian state assets into a loan to Kyiv. Such an approach would be unprecedented: seizing—or repurposing—state assets to underwrite reconstruction and defence. “First and foremost, this is a political decision and a political choice,” Frederiksen said. “I support the idea totally.”
Russian officials, meanwhile, pushed back. Moscow described the latest measures as “serious” but argued they would not be decisive. On the battlefield, Western officials and some European leaders insist Russia is sustaining itself at a growing political and human cost. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte warned that Russian gains were shrinking and came at “a huge price,” rhetorically pressing the argument that continued pressure could push Moscow to talks.
So, will sanctions and arms force a table?
That is the tension at the heart of this week’s diplomacy. Western leaders are ratcheting up a two-track plan: make Ukraine more resilient in the short term — more munitions, more energy help — while tightening financial and economic screws to erode Russia’s ability to wage war. The logic is clear. The practice is messier.
Sanctions take time to bite. Converting frozen assets into loans will invite legal challenges and hard bargaining among EU members. And the question of whether Russia would ever come to the negotiating table in good faith — rather than to solidify gains — remains open. In public, Moscow continues to posture defiantly; in private, its options may be narrowing.
For European publics, weary of the costs — fiscal and moral — the message from this week was: prepare for a long winter. For Kyiv, it was reassurance that, however halting, aid and solidarity persist. For the United States, the untidy domestic politics of weapon transfers and summits remain a background drumbeat.
Ultimately, the Coalition of the Willing is as much a political instrument as a military supply chain. It asks European leaders and publics two hard questions: How much are you willing to bear to prevent a wider, long-term rewrite of European security? And if the day for talks arrives, will the West have done enough to ensure those talks produce a just and durable peace?
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
