Burnham buys Starmer time, but growing threat remains

Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster, once treated as an internal Labour headache, now looks like a direct test of Keir Starmer’s authority.

It is easy to see why.

The Greater Manchester Mayor remains one of Labour’s most bankable figures with the wider public, and he continues to command real affection across a large section of the parliamentary party.

A 2021 YouGov poll found 69% of Labour members preferred him as leader over Mr Starmer.

By comparison, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned yesterday but did not go as far as formally opening a leadership bid, had long been viewed more as a problem for Mr Starmer than a likely successor.

Yes, Mr Streeting could probably secure the 81 signatures required to force a contest.

But few in the party believed he had the backing among Labour members to carry it through to victory.

That is not a doubt many attach to Mr Burnham.

If the Greater Manchester Mayor can return to parliament through the by-election caused by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, he will emerge as a genuine danger to the prime minister.

The fact that Mr Simons was once an ally of Mr Starmer only adds another layer of menace.

Allies of Mr Burnham are already presenting the moment as a deft piece of political stagecraft.

The constituency he has settled on – Makerfield in Greater Manchester – gave 50% of its vote to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party in last week’s local elections.

Labour got just 23%.

Nigel Farage posted on X that Reform ‘look forward to the Makerfield by-election’

The message, then, is that Mr Burnham is stepping onto the front foot against Reform, while Mr Starmer has spent much of this period accused only of trying to contain the threat.

That case might carry more weight had Mr Burnham not spent recent weeks discreetly trying to find an MP prepared to vacate what Labour would regard as a safe seat – somewhere he would be close to certain of victory.

No one agreed to do it.

Even so, Mr Burnham now has the chance to show he can confront Reform in one of its freshest strongholds.

And Mr Farage has been quick to meet him head-on.

“We look forward to the Makerfield by-election,” he posted on X.

“Reform will throw absolutely everything at it,” he added.

That means the contest will be anything but straightforward.

The indications, though, are that Mr Burnham will at least get the chance to make his case.

ITV News reported last night that Downing Street will not try to stop him standing in Makerfield – a notable reversal from February, when it did precisely that.

It is the strongest sign so far that Mr Starmer no longer appears able to take on Mr Burnham on every battlefield.

Mr Burnham could face Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as a pontential rival in the leadership contest

Even if he does secure a route back to Westminster, Mr Burnham’s path to Downing Street remains anything but simple.

He has fought for the Labour leadership twice before – in 2010 and 2015 – and was defeated on both occasions.

His likely opponents would include Mr Streeting on Labour’s right and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on the so-called soft left.

But Mr Burnham holds one advantage neither of them can claim – separation from Mr Starmer’s unpopular government.

That gives him an obvious appeal to those who want a figure capable of taking the battle to Reform and Green Party.

That argument is expected to be reinforced by Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell, who is due to use a speech today to publicly support Mr Burnham’s by-election campaign and to say that he, Mr Streeting and former Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner should all be “key players” in the party’s future.

Coming from the deputy leader, that amounts to about as near as one can get to drafting Mr Starmer’s political obituary in public.

And so, for Mr Starmer, the warning signs are no longer subtle.

Among Labour’s most senior figures, his departure is starting to look less like a matter of if than when – and under what circumstances.

His one remaining ally is the calendar.

A by-election in Makerfield would take, at minimum, six to eight weeks to hold.

And until then, no one is going to pull the trigger on a leadership contest.

The prime minister has, in effect, bought himself the rest of the summer.

The question now is whether he can make any use of that time.

Few in Westminster think he will.