The dusk has settled on Euro 2024’s group rounds.
Croatia and Hungary bowed out early, despite their robust efforts, missing the cut for the top sixteen.
While traditional powerhouses like Italy and England sailed through alongside Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal, some teams lucked out more than others.
We’ll dive into the details with Opta stats to pinpoint the unlucky lads and the fortuitous frontrunners of this phase.
UNLUCKY LOSERS
Croatia
Dive into Croatia’s saga: they lead in expected goals yet falter, painting them as the group stage’s most notable underachievers.
Despite Luka Modric’s historic goal against Italy making him the oldest goal-scorer at the Euros, a late equalizer by Mattia Zaccagni for Italy pegged Croatia back to a 1-1 tie.
This result demoted Croatia to third in their group. Given their impressive play, they merited more than their meager two points.
Initially, they succumbed to a vibrant Spain, 3-0, despite their 2.38 xG surpassing Spain’s 2.01. Their subsequent match involved amassing 2.69 xG versus Albania, yet a late goal saw them stalled at a 2-2 draw.
Collectively, Croatia’s xG reached 6.55, the highest yet, but sadly, only three goals materialized.
Defensive unlucky stretches also haunted them as they conceded six goals from an xGA of 4.37. Zlatko Dalic’s squad, while robust, couldn’t fend off the numerous shots aimed at them, leading to their untimely exit.
Czechia
Czechia languished at the basement of Group F, with Georgia emerging as the surprise contender, outmaneuvering Portugal for third place.
Without securing a victory, Czechia notched a 5.11 xG, ranking sixth overall.
Despite dominating in shots on goal (tied with Germany at 20), their finishing was lackluster. Patrik Schick, previously tied with Cristiano Ronaldo for the Golden Boot in 2020, couldn’t replicate his past success.
Ukraine
Group E witnessed a rare scenario: all four teams, Romania, Belgium, Slovakia, and Ukraine, ended equal with four points each.
Despite this, Ukraine ended last, marking a Euro first. They should’ve bagged another goal with a 3.07 xG, but only managed two, reflecting a poor conversion rate of 5.13%.
Their defence conceded costly goals against Romania, although they were compromised more by exceptional finishes than excessive opportunities.
LUCKY WINNERS
Italy
A stroke of luck kept the reigning champions in play when Zaccagni’s clutch goal against Croatia secured their advancement.
Indeed, Italy tottered into the last 16, amassing just 0.9 xG in that crucial match, showing a potential kink in their armor.
Now set against Switzerland, the question remains: can Spalletti’s squad carve a path through a less daunting half of the bracket?
Their total xG of 2.62 is worryingly low, but fortune favors the brave, and Italy might just blaze through.
Georgia
Georgia’s debut dance through to the knockouts, fortified by a stunning 2-0 upset over Portugal, was impressive.
Georges Mikautadze shines brightly, echoing Gareth Bale’s initial European exploits back in 2016.
However, defensively, they’ve been porous, conceding a tournament-high 71 shots. Their goalie, Giorgi Mamardashvili, has, however, been a savior, making crucial saves.
Yet, with just 26 attempts of their own, their elevated shot conversion rate of 15.38% might be their lucky charm or their Achilles’ heel in the coming rounds.
England
Despite a roster brimming with stars, England’s lackluster showing has drawn flak.
With an xG of just 2.19, they’ve been far from dominant. Yet, their defense stands resolute, having conceded only 1.15 xG and kept two clean sheets.
Their journey forward might look promising, given the softer competition ahead, but it’s high time for Southgate’s squad to step up.
