Why Somalia is important to Egypt in the Nile Dam
CAIRO – Political relations are changing rapidly in the Middle East and Africa – including relations between Egypt and Somalia, which appear to have cooled with the neutral Somali stance on the crisis in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
On March 8, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi received the new Somali ambassador to Egypt, Ilya Sheikh Omar. On the same day, Omar issued a statement expressing Somalia’s willingness to initiate an rapprochement with Egypt.
“It is a great honor on this historic day to present my credentials to President Sisi,” Omar said at the beginning of his statement. He subsequently conveyed his country’s openness to strengthen relations with Egypt and work in various areas through the activation of the Memoranda of Understanding signed between the two countries in 2015 and 2019 in the fields of health, education, agriculture, livestock and fisheries and trade.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry had issued a statement on March 5 expressing Egypt’s condemnation of the suicide bombing in Mogadishu, Somalia, targeting a popular restaurant on March 4, killing and wounding more than 50 people.
The statement emphasized Egypt’s solidarity with Somalia’s efforts to combat terrorism and extremism in order to restore security. Since 2020, Al-Shabaab, a terrorist organization in Kenya and Somalia, has intensified its operations in Somalia against civilians and the Somali army.
Many observers believe that Egypt’s solidarity with Somalia in its efforts to fight terrorism at a time when many Arab and African countries were not following suit is proof that Egypt intends to support Somalia against extremist and terrorist groups.
Zakaria Othman, a former researcher at the Arab and African Research Center, told Al-Monitor that the transfer of Egyptian expertise to African countries in the fight against terrorism has become a fundamental pillar of Egyptian foreign policy.
He said Egyptian support for African countries in their fight against terrorism was becoming more important today in light of Egypt’s progress in this area, “as terrorist operations have almost disappeared after spreading significantly since 2013.”
Othman said what proves Egypt’s openness to transfer its experience in fighting terrorism and extremist groups is its signing of military cooperation agreements with Sudan and strategic and security cooperation agreements with South Africa.
However, strengthening cooperation and consolidating relations with Somalia specifically through the transfer of security expertise in the fight against terrorism or increasing economic cooperation may be of particular importance to Egypt compared to other African countries, as Somalia overlooks the Ethiopian border.
Since 2012, Ethiopia has been involved in the longest and most complex conflict with Egypt over the conditions for the filling and operation of GERD and its impact on Egypt’s share of the Nile.
Egypt has in recent years strengthened its ties with Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya and Eritrea, all of which border Ethiopia. Media releases published in 2020 unconfirmed reports that there were Egyptian efforts to establish military bases in South Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
These reports came despite Sisi repeatedly stressing that Egypt ruled out the military option of dealing with the GERD crisis and stressing that the crisis with Addis Ababa is a long-term negotiating crisis.
For his part, an Egyptian researcher specializing in African affairs at the German Democratic Center (a non-governmental organization) told Al-Monitor on anonymity terms that Egypt’s efforts to expand its influence among Ethiopia’s neighbors, including Somalia, not aimed at using the neighbors. lands as military bases or for any military purpose that some might be inclined to think.
He pointed out that Ethiopia’s neighbors, including Somalia, are members of the Arab League and / or the African Union, and they can support any sanction against Ethiopia through their membership in the two unions if Ethiopia continues to insist on filling and operating the dam without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan.
He added, “Although Egypt will not succeed in pushing a regional body or countries to impose sanctions on Ethiopia, obtaining action support from its neighbors in both Egypt and Sudan could affect Addis Ababa’s economic and trade ambitions, as Ethiopia is a landlocked country that is heavily dependent on Somali or Eritrean ports for trade.
Also if [Ethiopia’s] neighbors stop importing electricity from Ethiopia, the dam loses much of its expected profits, which puts even more pressure on Addis Ababa, especially when Egypt had announced its intention to build power plants in Somalia, Eritrea and South Sudan. ”
In March 2020, Somalia’s Foreign Ministry said in an official statement that Somalia and Djibouti have taken neutral positions on the conflict between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the operation and completion of the GERD. The ministry said Somalia was only ready to take part in resolving the conflict as a mediator to calm tensions between the three countries.
By 2020, Egypt managed to get several regional and global official decisions and statements issued against Addis Ababa’s intention to unilaterally fill the dam. Head among these was a statement from the Arab League in March 2020.
The declaration was signed by all members except three, which included Somalia amid alleged tensions between Egypt and Somalia due to rumors, with Egyptian authorities establishing contacts with the authorities in Somaliland, which is a separate region from the legitimate government of Somalia.
In this regard, Abdul Aziz al-Karsi, a Somali security expert specializing in Horn of Africa affairs, said in press releases back in April 2020 that both Turkish media and Somali journalists loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood are an ally with Turkey, has played a detrimental role in promoting rumors of Egypt’s intention to recognize North Western of Somaliawith the aim of establishing a military base there.
Although he partially agrees with the importance of Somalia for Egypt in the GERD crisis, Karsi believes that Egypt is trying to limit the expansion of Turkish influence in Somalia by strengthening its ties with Somalia.
Turkey opened one of its largest military bases in Mogadishu amid growing fears of “the secret use of this base to support the Houthis in Yemen to please Iran, which is an ally of Turkey or the Muslim Brotherhood, which began to approach the Houthi militia, “he added.
Egypt seeks to maintain or expand its cooperation with Somalia in the light of Turkish influence in areas other than the military and economic spheres.
On January 24, the Egyptian Ministry of Education celebrated the return of its missions to Somalia and the reopening of its schools at a time when Turkey was also opening many schools in Somalia.
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