In Ethiopia, the situation in Tigray is still changing, while the federal army has withdrawn and the Tigrayan uprising has now recaptured much of the province … But on the side of the other controversial actor in the war, Eritrea, silence is total. Eritrean troops, accused of several crimes, have withdrawn to the border. According to several observers, the front line between the Tigrayans and Eritrea has been reformed by President Issayas Afewerki: a very dangerous face-to-face that has already mourned the recent history of the region.
According to a close friend of the Tigrayan leaders, one of their war goals is clear: “to march against Asmara”. And on the Eritrean side, we take the threat seriously. As always at critical times, electricity is very scarce in recent days, say families who have been in contact with loved ones in the country, and the government remains silent.
“Obviously the signals indicate that they are afraid,” explains Eritrean political scientist Saleh Younis. The proof, according to him: the only official announcement since Mekele falls is a tweet from the Minister of Information who only suggests between the lines that for Asmara the war against the former TPLF continued. Yemane Ghebremeskel listed several battles won by Eritrea between 2000 and 2016 and recalled the mantra repeated by President Issayas Afewerki since the outbreak of war in November last year: “Game over” (“The game is lost”).
From a military point of view, the balance of power is not clear
Now that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has stepped aside withdraw his army without a fight “Issayas Afewerki understood that Tigray is lost”, argues former Eritrean diplomat Fathi Osman, now in exile. “But the goal that had led him to Tigray is intact: his desire to destroy the old TPLF once and for all. For him, as for TPLF for that matter, it is them or him, he says.
In fact, this face-to-face meeting is not new, and it is in great memory. Following an alliance of circumstances against the Mengistu dictatorship, the TPLF, which dominates Ethiopia and the Eritreans led by Issayas Afewerki, have already engaged in a devastating war between 1998 and 2000, for control of certain villages. If these territories today are under the control of the Eritreans after being occupied for twenty years by Ethiopia, the war has never ended. “And its settlement,” Fathi Osman recalls, “really served as a pretext for concluding peace with Ethiopia and for receiving a Nobel Peace Prize for Abiy Ahmed. But it also served as a pretext for the murderous Eritrean intervention in Tigray. “
But from a military point of view, the balance of power is not clear. Saleh Younis, always well-informed about the inner circle of power, for his part, indicates that at this stage it is impossible for him to know whether the Eritrean army has the ability to withstand a tigray attack, nor whether the tigray insurgency has the means to invade Eritrea. Former diplomat Fathi Osman does not comment, but believes the Tigrayans would lose, at least in the event of an invasion, “the political advantage gained during this rapid recapture of their territory” and their “position of political power”.
Western Chancellery’s Efforts: Avoid Escalation
Diplomatic sources in Addis Ababa also say that the whole Western Chancellery’s effort in recent days is to avoid an escalation, especially an abundance of fighting in the province of Amhara, whose militias took part in the war., And across the Eritrean border.
In this context, it is difficult to predict the next belligerent coup. “But the one who should be afraid,” says Saleh Younis, “is Abiy Ahmed. In its victory statement, the Tigrayan government draws a parallel between Abiy and Derg [le comité militaire dirigé par le colonel Mengistu Hailemariam jusqu’à son renversement par le TPLF en 1991, NDLR], and does not even mention Issayas. So for the TPLF, we are in the same situation as in 1990, when its leaders realized that if they took control of Tigray, but did not destroy Derg, the latter would remain a permanent threat. “
The sudden reversal of the balance of power between Addis Ababa, Tigray and Eritrea therefore sent the protagonists not far from their starting point. As if eight months of war had basically served nothing but to cause countless suffering.
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