If the global economy recovers, the rise to pre-crisis activity levels is likely to be long, erratic and uncertain, the International Monetary Fund said in its economic forecast released at its autumn meetings. . Return to activity will be particularly difficult for certain new and developing countries, where infections are growing rapidly. But also for the African countries that relied on their oil exports or tourism to come back.
Sub-Saharan Africa could experience its first recession in 25 years. After 3.2% growth recorded in 2019, activity should thus fall to minus 3% this year before rising again to 3.1% in 2021.
This modest rebound relates in particular to South Africa. Following a collapse of GDP of 8% expected this year, the country is expected to resume growth of 3% next year. However, the biggest problem for the region’s largest economic power is continued unemployment, which could rise to 37% by 2020.
On the other hand, the recovery of the Nigerian economy may prove disappointing. Only 1.7% growth is expected in 2021 after a jump of more than 4% this year.
Elsewhere in Africa, four countries are fleeing the recession, including Ethiopia, Tanzania, Ivory Coast and Kenya.
Recovery in African states will depend on the sustainability of their debt and the funds they have available. These countries would need $ 1.2 trillion in funding until 2023 to overcome the Covid-19 crisis.