Imagine waking up to find that your once-peaceful neighborhood is now a potential flashpoint for conflict—a reality that many residents in East Africa might soon face. Despite persistent calls for peace, the lingering disputes in the region threaten to transform into a broader conflict—particularly between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Recent developments suggest that Ethiopia and Eritrea, historical rivals, could be on the brink of yet another confrontation. It was only a couple of decades ago, between 1998 and 2000, that these neighbors engaged in the fierce battles of the Eritrean-Ethiopian War, which is also infamously known as the Badme War. Time may have passed, but memories and scars remain. Could history be about to repeat itself?
An official in Ethiopia has sounded alarm bells. General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a vice president in the interim administration of Ethiopia’s Tigray region, cautioned in an Africa Report article: “At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out.” This chilling observation not only reminds us of the fragile nature of peace but also poses a question that looms large—can this war be avoided before it begins?
A War Reflecting Old Wounds: The Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict
To understand the gravity of the current tensions, we need to revisit the recent and painful past. The Ethiopia-Tigray war, which erupted in November 2020, was not just another conflict—it was a soul-wrenching chapter for both Ethiopia and Tigray. The nation was torn apart as federal forces clashed with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a party that had previously held a dominant position in the country’s politics. The inevitable question is, why did these tensions resurface then, and more importantly, why are they still smoldering?
The war rapidly spun into chaos, with Eritrean forces and local militias getting drawn into the fray. Reports of horrific atrocities—mass killings, gruesome sexual violence, and the weaponization of starvation—left indelible marks on the human conscience. Then, a glimpse of hope emerged. In November 2022, a peace agreement inked in Pretoria, South Africa, promised a ceasefire and the reformation of Tigray into Ethiopia’s broader federal system. Yet, even as Tigray began this slow journey back, shadows of internal divisions within the TPLF and the broader landscape of ethnic and political rivalries in Ethiopia started resurrecting nightmare scenarios of renewed conflict. How does one balance hope with caution in such precarious circumstances?
Current Fault Lines: Brewing Tension Between Ethiopia and Eritrea
The sparks of discord have grown against this backdrop of fragile peace. According to a Reuters report, a faction breaking away from the TPLF reportedly aligned with Eritrea and captured the northern town of Adigrat. From these murmurings of unrest, Getachew Reda, head of Tigray’s interim administration, pleaded for governmental intervention against these rebels, who staunchly refute any link with Eritrea.
The air bristles with tension. “There is clear antagonism between Ethiopia and Eritrea,” Getachew revealed to the press. “My utmost apprehension is that the Tigray community could once again become unwilling casualties of a conflict they neither instigated nor believed in,” he lamented, articulating a fear that might well echo in the hearts of many.
Despite these fears, official statements remain absent from Ethiopia, while Eritrea’s information minister dismisses these alerts as “war-mongering psychosis.” However, there are other signals that cannot simply be ignored. Diplomatic sources, preferring to remain anonymous, disclosed to Reuters the recent mobilization of Ethiopian troops towards the border. Meanwhile, Human Rights Concern-Eritrea, based in the UK, reports a massive military call-up by Eritrea in February. Are these the ominous signs of actions speaking louder than words?
As the world watches, harsh wisdom speaks through history. Will logic prevail over entrenched bitterness, or are we witnessing the prelude to another tragic showdown in East Africa? The narrative unfolds with every tick of the clock.
