Stability in jeopardy as Somalia and Kenya spit across the sea border
The ongoing standoff between Kenya and Somalia over a large area of the Indian Ocean has caused concern among hundreds of thousands of people who depend on the region’s rich fishing areas to survive.
“We are really concerned,” Kenyan fisherman Adam Lali told DW. “If border issues are not handled well, they will give us problems. This will deprive us of our fishing grounds and will also lead to tensions between us and Somali communities.”
The disputed area extends over 160,580 square kilometers (62,000 square kilometers). Somalia, located northeast of Kenya, wants to expand its maritime border with Kenya along the line to the land border in a southeasterly direction.
Kenya, however, wants the border to go out to sea in a straight eastern line, which will give it more maritime territory. In addition to being an important fishing area for both countries, the area is also rich in gas and oil.
Kenya moves out of court
After Somalia first brought the case to the table in 2014, the UN International Court of Justice (ICJ) was due to begin its public hearing in The Hague on Monday. The procedure was expected to run until March 24.
Before the procedure could begin, the Kenyan government announced its intention to withdraw from the case and submit its complaints to the UN Security Council, of which it is currently a non-permanent member.
Based on international maritime law, it was widely expected that the court would rule in Somalia’s favor.
“Possibly the Kenyans also withdrew because of an expectation that they could just lose,” political scientist Stig Jarle Hansen, from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, told DW.
No chance for a dialogue
Some Kenyan observers like Mustafa Ali, an expert on conflict resolution and national security at the HORN Institute for Strategic Studies, do not believe that the ICJ was the best place to settle the dispute in the first place.
“There are so many alternative mechanisms that could be much more effective and would deliver results,” Ali told DW. “One is the border mechanism of the African Union. The other is direct bilateral negotiations between Kenya and Somalia. Which in my opinion would be the best solution.”
Such a dialogue is unlikely to take place any time soon. Relations between Kenya and Somalia, which are no strangers to border disputes, have become more and more broken. Tensions escalated after the Somali government severed diplomatic ties with Kenya in December after accusing Nairobi of interfering in its affairs.
Kenya’s interference in the spotlight
Decades of anger have recently come to the fore, including Kenya’s support for the Somali state of Jubaland.
“There is a big conflict in Somalia between the opposition and the president [Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed] Pharmacy, “said Hansen.” And one of the most crucial players in the state of Juba. “
Many international observers agree with the Somali government’s allegations. In January, 9 people were killed in the fighting in Jubaland. Somalia blamed the killings of Kenyan troops and militias backed by Nairobi. Kenya currently has a contingent of nearly 3,500 troops in the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), deployed to combat the terrorist group al Shabaab.
A fragile state was further weakened
The Kenyan government has denied any wrongdoing and accused Mogadishu of seeking a scapegoat for domestic problems.
Hansen said there could be truth in that. “I think there is now a greater willingness to face Kenya to distract from the country’s internal strife,” he said.
Last year’s removal of Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, who was in the midst of successful negotiations with Kenya, fits this hypothesis, he added.
Tensions have also risen in Somalia as Farmajo continues to ignore calls to resign and hold elections originally scheduled for 2020 and later rescheduled for February 2021.
A constitutional crisis is now unfolding in the fragile state. Last Friday, the UN Security Council called on the Somali government to organize elections “without delay” in a resolution underlining pressure from al-Shabaab and armed opposition groups on the country’s already poor security.
A victory for Al-Shabaab?
The militant group al-Shabab is taking advantage of the situation by focusing its propaganda on attacks on the president. There is also concern that the resources to combat terrorist groups will be diverted to address internal political frustrations.
“We have already seen it with the Somali special forces deployed inside Mogadishu,” Hansen said. “And then there will be much less pressure on al-Shabab, which will allow it to expand further.”
Potential for regional disturbance
Hansen said there was potential for further political unrest in the wider region, where many conflicts are deeply intertwined.
Ethiopia, where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is currently fighting a war in the Tigray region, supports the Farmajo government and has offered to train its troops.
Sudan and Egypt join forces to oppose Ethiopia’s construction of a giant dam along the Nile. There is also the possibility that Sudan may intervene in the Tigray.
“So you have a strange conflict brewing from Cairo in the north to Kenya in the south, which could create a lot of problems for the world in the near future,” Hansen said.
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