ONLF and the Ethiopian Government: A Strained Peace

Mogadishu (AX) — In the intricate tapestry of Ethiopian politics, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) finds itself at a pivotal juncture. With a history steeped in struggle and hope, the movement is now grappling with discord within its ranks, driven by accusations of the Ethiopian government failing to honor the 2018 Asmara Peace Agreement. Abdirahman Mahdi, a prominent voice heading a faction within ONLF, has declared an end to cooperative efforts with the Ethiopian authorities. According to Mahdi, this drastic measure stems from systemic breaches of the peace accord that initially promised a tranquil resolution to their long-standing quest for self-determination.

The landscape is rife with contention. The assertion made by the Nairobi-based faction was swiftly countered by Ethiopia’s state broadcaster, Fana BC. In a narrative that challenges the Nairobi declaration, Fana BC maintains that ONLF, as an entity, remains steadfastly aligned with the peace agreement’s principles. They contend that the Nairobi-based leaders acted autonomously, devoid of any mandate from the formal leadership.

ONLF’s outspoken statement, emerging from Nairobi this past Sunday, paints a stark picture of disillusionment. It alleges that Addis Ababa has effectively dismantled the peace trajectory. The cooperation that once seemed promising now appears obstructed by the federal government’s reluctance to formally recognize ONLF as a legitimate political party. The movement also accuses the government of narrowing the scope for Somali political engagement and neglecting the reintegration of former ONLF fighters—an integral element of the peace agreement.

“The Ethiopian government has turned its back on peace and democracy, replacing them with repression, deception, and centralized control,” remarked ONLF spokesperson Abdulqadir Hassan Hirmooge (Adani).

Adani further alleged complicity on the part of the Somali Regional State’s President, Mustafe Muhumed Omar, in strategies to weaken ONLF by engaging with individuals unaligned with its core leadership. These words belie a deep-seated frustration, one that echoes through the annals of ONLF’s history.

No sooner had the ink dried on the Nairobi faction’s announcement than Ethiopian state media issued a counter-narrative. They described the Nairobi declaration as illegitimate, a mere representation of a few rather than the collective. According to Fana BC, the ONLF Central Committee dismisses the Nairobi group’s stance, urging unity and adherence to the original peace pact.

“The declaration made in Nairobi does not represent ONLF. It was issued by individuals without the approval of the Central Committee, Executive Committee, or Vice-Chairman Abdulkarim Sheikh Muse,” the report stated.

Meanwhile, tensions simmer as ONLF officials aligned with Nairobi argue Ethiopia is sowing discord within the movement, a crafty attempt to dilute leadership and silence Somali political voices. They accuse Addis Ababa of retreating from planned negotiations in Kenya despite initial agreements to participate in dialogue.

The clock ticks for ONLF’s dissident leaders, who have charted a course of public consultations to determine future maneuvers. With plans to engage the Somali diaspora across continents during March, the stage is set for a Central Committee meeting in April to solidify the movement’s political trajectory. “We will consult our people and attempt to keep the door open for dialogue, but only with those who share our vision,” Adani asserted. Yet, the looming specter of a return to armed resistance cannot be ignored, contingent on Ethiopia’s adherence to its commitments.

Founded in 1984, the ONLF has borne witness to numerous transformations, culminating in the 2018 peace agreement that paved the way for political engagement over militancy. However, the current tumult marks perhaps the most significant fracture since its metamorphosis into a political entity.

What is at stake is not merely a political skirmish but the precarious balance of peace within Ethiopia itself. The nation currently battles multiple internal conflicts, with ethnic militias stirring unrest. In Amhara, confrontations between federal forces and the Fano militia have wreaked havoc, displacing countless civilians. The Oromia region, too, despite a recent peace with an OLA faction, is caught in the grip of persistent violence against civilians. As if these troubles were not enough, the Tigray region, still reeling from a devastating war concluded in 2022, now sees political turbulence within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), hinting at potential resurgences of unrest.

In such a volatile landscape, one must ponder: Can ONLF navigate through internal and external pressures to find a pathway back to the negotiating table? Or does this mark the beginning of new chapters in its storied history? The answers, as ever, lie with its people and their unwavering resolve.