Ethiopia in 2024: Learning from History and the Implications of Abiy’s Memorandum of Understanding

Back in 2006, Ethiopia was the big player in the Horn of Africa. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s leadership brought about a time of unprecedented political stability. The EPRDF held the reins tightly, and the economy was on fire with an average growth rate of 8% annually, thanks in no small part to Western aid. Ethiopia’s robust military and economic boom made it a linchpin for the U.S. in the War on Terror, which gave it the green light to meddle in Somalia.

Using its formidable military, Ethiopia thrust itself into Somalia to dismantle the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). With global backing, it seemed poised to strengthen its regional dominance. But, alas, the intervention backfired, leading to the rise of Al-Shabaab—a group now considered one of the region’s most formidable threats. Instead of achieving lasting peace, Ethiopia’s 2006 adventure highlighted its inability to maintain its power grip as it eventually withdrew in failure.

At that period, Somalia was in total disarray, with its interim government barely hanging on and Al-Shabaab gaining ground. But by 2024, the tables had turned. Formerly formidable Ethiopia now grapples with internal rifts and international censure. Conversely, Somalia, long written off as a failed state, has started to stand tall, even winning a Non-Permanent Member seat on the UN Security Council for 2025-26.

Ethiopia’s Decline: 2006 vs. 2024

In 2006, just a few years after the 9/11 attacks, Ethiopia’s move into Somalia was portrayed as a crucial part of the broader War on Terror. Global terror fears were sky-high, so the international community backed Ethiopia’s military incursion. Ethiopia’s armed forces were robust, and its economy was booming, buoyed by copious amounts of foreign capital. Ethiopia was perceived as a beacon of stability in a volatile region, and Prime Minister Zenawi skillfully secured international backing, casting Ethiopia as a barrier against terrorism. The Ethiopian troops were sent to topple the ICU, which had control over much of southern Somalia.

Fast-forward to 2024, and the situation is radically different. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government finds itself increasingly isolated on both regional and global fronts. Criticism over Ethiopia’s controversial MoU with North Western State of Somalia has stirred the pot, and internal conflicts, such as the civil strife in Tigray and ongoing unrest in the Amhara region, have marred its image of stability. Unlike 2006, when Ethiopia was globally supported and invited by Somalia’s interim government, Abiy’s administration faces global and regional isolation today. Rather than addressing pressing security threats like Al-Shabaab, Ethiopia finds itself embroiled in destabilizing territorial ambitions.

In 2006, Ethiopia’s foray into Somalia seemed necessary to curb the ICU’s threat to regional stability. By 2024, though, the ethics of a war-torn nation leading peacekeeping missions in Somalia are dubious. Domestic turmoil and ulterior motives compromise Ethiopia’s credibility as a regional peacekeeper.

Al-Shabaab’s exploitation of Ethiopia’s distraction

Even though Al-Shabaab is weakened, it has seized Ethiopia’s distractions to stoke nationalist fervor. By portraying Ethiopia’s MoU as attempted annexation, Al-Shabaab has enhanced its recruitment and rallying support. Ethiopia’s ambitions, rooted in economic motives, risk sacrificing Somalia’s sovereignty and growing stability.

Such ambitions could kindle fresh conflict in a region riddled with wars and humanitarian crises. The Red Sea remains a crucial trade route, facilitating 20% of global commerce. Tensions in the Horn of Africa could send ripples through global supply chains, potentially wreaking havoc on international commerce.

Ethiopia’s role in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) appears contradictory when juxtaposed with its destabilizing foreign policies. While 16 other landlocked African nations peacefully access the sea through neighbors under the UNCLOS, Ethiopia seems to aim for much more: a naval base and a sea corridor. Such goals could reshape the region’s geopolitical fabric and prompt broader conflicts.

Somalia’s Resurgence

​In stark contrast to Ethiopia, Somalia has been on an upward trajectory. In 2006, Somalia was seen as a collapsing state with Al-Shabaab gaining ground. Internationally, it was branded a failure, heavily dependent on foreign intervention to maintain any semblance of order.

But now, in 2024, Somalia is on the rise. The country has successfully navigated through its debt relief program, stabilizing its economy. In 2023, Somalia joined the East African Community (EAC), marking a significant step towards regional integration and economic growth.

Further strides have been made globally. The UN Security Council recently lifted a decades-long arms embargo, empowering Somalia to better defend itself. With these restrictions removed, and the bolstering of its security forces, Somalia is poised to take control of its destiny.

In the past two decades, Somalia has evolved from a fragile, transitional government in Baidoa to a permanent one based in Mogadishu, fortifying its ability to assert sovereignty. As it prepares for AUSSOM, its third peace support operation set for January 1, 2025, Somalia has become adept at navigating regional peacekeeping geopolitics. This marks a significant shift from 2007 when AMISOM launched with Somalia heavily relying on external actors. Now, Somali Security Forces are taking the lead, with the African Union acting in a more supportive role.

Proxy War Fears

In December 2023, Ethiopia and Somalia sealed a defense pact, aiming to boost bilateral cooperation. Ethiopian troops, particularly in regions like Hiiraan and Bakool, operate under this agreement rather than the African Union’s mandate. But with rising regional tensions, this cooperation is at risk. In response to Ethiopia’s MoU, Somalia has inked security accords with Turkey and Egypt—long-term allies with their own stakes in the Horn of Africa. This development indicates the growing fractures in the region, edging it closer to potential proxy war, spurred by Ethiopia’s strategic errors and its quest for a naval base, which Prime Minister Abiy has vowed to secure “peacefully or forcefully.”

New Power Dynamics

The dramatic shift in fortune between Ethiopia and Somalia since 2006 highlights broader changes in regional power dynamics. Ethiopia’s internal discord and aggressive foreign policy—evident in the contentious MoU with North Western State of Somalia—have eroded its influence. In 2006, Ethiopia acted with impunity; now, its regional standing has significantly diminished.

Somalia, on the other hand, has gained strength, rejecting Ethiopia’s territorial ambitions and asserting constitutionally that no Somali president can cede land. By continually denying the validity of the MoU, Somalia underscores Ethiopia’s ambitions as anachronistic.

The stark contrasts between Ethiopia and Somalia today underscore the unpredictable twists in the Horn of Africa’s power dynamics. Ethiopia’s influence is waning, while Somalia’s resurgence grows. Ethiopia’s failure to grasp these changing dynamics, coupled with its territorial pursuits, risks escalating regional instability.

If Ethiopia aims to restore its regional stature, it must recalibrate its foreign policy towards diplomacy and stability. Both nations—and the wider region—stand to gain if Ethiopia puts aside expansionist ambitions for peaceful cooperation. Anything less could deepen regional tensions and destabilize an already fragile region.