Somalia: The Strategic Go-Between in the Ethiopia-Egypt Chess Game

Between Ethiopia and Egypt: Somalia, the Proxy Pawn

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring

EDITORIAL | In the intricate tapestry of geopolitics, a stage where nations are both performers and observers, Somalia finds itself caught not as a lead actor but rather as a piece on a chessboard—moved by strategies more refined than its own. The backdrop of this dynamic? A modern duel between Ethiopia and Egypt, echoing ancient rivalries, centered around the world’s most indispensable resource: water.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is nearing its grand debut by July 2025. It’s more than just an assembly of concrete and machinery; it’s a bold declaration of Ethiopia’s rising autonomy, reshaping narratives traditionally controlled downstream. When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched the dam’s second turbine in 2022, it wasn’t merely a technical milestone. It was a moment steeped in national pride and regional reconfiguration.

For Egypt, whose lifeline flows from the undisturbed Nile, GERD symbolizes not just a dam but a dangerous precedent. The notion that upstream nations can dictate terms is perceived by Cairo as an infrastructural existential threat. So unfolds a dance not of dialogue, but of tactical positioning—where deterrence takes precedence over diplomacy.

And caught in the crossfire: Somalia.

Somalia stands out not because of its geographical position, but due to its reactive stance—often hesitant, seldom strategic. Amidst a lacking robust foreign policy, Somalia finds itself wandering through this regional mêlée, without direction or strategy. Egypt entices with promises of military collaboration and historical camaraderie, while Ethiopia counters with regional agreements and bilateral influence. Somalia, entangled in its internal struggles, endeavors to walk this tightrope blindfolded.

Consider this: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent visit to Cairo. His smile alongside Egyptian counterparts in a seemingly innocuous photograph carries a weighty geopolitical narrative. Is this a subtle signal or an unintended pledge amidst Ethiopia’s regional aspirations? More often than not, Somalia’s signals are not deliberately diplomatic—they’re simply unrefined.

Meanwhile, the internal repercussions are undeniable. The Ethiopian-North Western State of Somalia port access agreement—crafted with scant regard for Mogadishu’s stance—has sent disquieting waves through the South, leaving Federal Member States feeling both bypassed and vulnerable. Though the Nile may seem distant from Kismayo or Baidoa, its ripple effects touch every corner of the Horn.

The challenge isn’t the dam itself; it’s the sobering realization that Somalia is yet again positioned as a tool—not for what it declares, but for what it passively permits.

Somalia’s foreign policy must evolve, shedding emotional alliances for a reasoned stance of nonalignment. It must understand that federalism extends beyond domestic frameworks to crafting coherent policies across the regions. Somalia cannot afford to be ensnared by dressings of development or echoes of old alliances, lured away from its core objectives: sovereignty, stability, and strategic neutrality.

GERD isn’t merely a regional spat—it tests statecraft throughout the Nile Basin. Ethiopia seeks control; Egypt desires continuity. Both pursue national interests. But for Somalia, the question lingers: What is truly ours?

The answer cannot be found in being a mere buffer. Somalia must not sacrifice national unity for transient alliances. Long divided and frequently misled, it is time for Somalia to refuse its part as a proxy and to reclaim its place as a sovereign, principled participant.

If not now—when the stakes span hydrological, diplomatic, and generational scales—then when?

Just as the Nile flows, so must wisdom guide. Somalia should position itself not between Ethiopia and Egypt but rise above the fray, navigating on paths of self-interest, free from external influence.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.

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