Flavio Bolsonaro steps onto Brazil’s presidential stage today carrying both a famous family name and the weight of a campaign already bruised by crisis, as he formally launches his bid for October’s election in an attempt to inherit the political mantle of his father, Jair Bolsonaro.
Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right provocateur who reshaped Brazil’s conservative movement, chose his eldest son as his political heir after receiving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup following his 2022 election loss to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The Liberal Party (PL) is set to confirm senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, as its presidential nominee at a Sao Paulo convention, where Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei will appear as guest of honor.
Flavio Bolsonaro is pitching himself as a candidate of rupture, pledging to “free” Brazil from crime, inflation, high taxes and Mr Lula, who is pursuing a fourth term as president.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
Until recently, the senator was running level with Mr Lula in the polls. Then came a damaging run of controversies involving links to a disgraced banker, an unusually public family rift and fresh tariffs imposed by his ally, US President Donald Trump.
A Datafolha poll released yesterday showed Mr Lula defeating Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff, taking 48 percent of the vote against the senator’s 43 percent.
“It is a moment of weakening for Flavio…there is uncertainty over the viability of his candidacy because rejection of him has increased,” said Marco Teixeira, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
A campaign shadowed by scandal
The first major blow landed in May, when a leaked audio recording appeared to capture Flavio Bolsonaro asking banker Daniel Vorcaro — who is accused in a multi-million dollar fraud case — to fund a film about his father.
Flavio Bolsonaro had previously denied having any contact with Mr Vorcaro and, only hours before the recording became public, told a reporter the allegation was “a lie”. He now says their relationship was confined to the movie project.
On Thursday, a Supreme Court justice ordered an investigation into how the film was financed.
Another rupture followed when his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, posted a video on Instagram saying he had “disrespected me and mistreated me … he said I didn’t understand anything about politics”.
The former first lady remains a crucial figure for the Brazilian right, particularly among the country’s large female and evangelical electorate.
As the split widened, Flavio Bolsonaro read aloud on social media a letter from Jair Bolsonaro calling for unity — an act that violated the conditions of his father’s house arrest.
Jair Bolsonaro
A Supreme Court justice subsequently barred Flavio Bolsonaro from visiting his father until after the first round of voting.
Seeking to close ranks on the right before the convention, Flavio Bolsonaro posted a video this week apologising to Michelle Bolsonaro, who swiftly accepted the overture.
The senator has tried to present himself as a less combative version of his father, though he remains a hardliner on crime and this week revived his father’s debunked claims of concern about Brazil’s electronic voting system.
He has also struggled to win over Brazil’s powerful centrist bloc, with key parties saying they will stay neutral in the 4 October election.
Tariffs become a political liability
Flavio Bolsonaro has faced further pressure after Mr Trump’s administration imposed two new rounds of tariffs on Brazil this month.
Last year, the Bolsonaro family supported tariffs on Brazil that were introduced in retaliation for the trial of the former president, an ally of Mr Trump.
Those duties were later partly rolled back after negotiations between Brasilia and Washington.
Flavio Bolsonaro urged the Trump administration, without success, to “postpone” the new tariffs until after the election, arguing they could give Mr Lula a “political victory”.
Mr Lula has seized on the dispute with the United States as a defining campaign theme, accusing his opponent of being a “traitor” and of placing political calculations ahead of Brazil’s economic interests.
