Marine Le Pen’s long-running legal battle took a dramatic turn on appeal, leaving France’s far-right figurehead with a slimmer — but still precarious — route toward a presidential run next year.
A French appeal court upheld Le Pen’s conviction for misusing EU funds but reduced the length of her ban on running for public office, in theory preserving a path for the National Rally leader to compete in the presidential election next year.
However, the court also imposed a three-year jail term: two years suspended and one to be served under an electronic ankle tag.
The ruling would make any presidential campaign both politically fraught and practically hard to execute, raising fresh uncertainty over whether she will ultimately press ahead for France’s highest office.
Le Pen has previously said she would be reluctant to campaign for the presidency while under electronic monitoring, arguing it would impede her ability to campaign and weaken her credibility as a candidate. She has not yet confirmed her next move.
She is due to give a prime-time TV interview this evening, where she may make an announcement about her political future.
In March last year, Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and hit with a five-year, immediate ban from holding public office — a penalty that would have blocked her long-planned fourth bid for the Elysee Palace.
Under today’s appeal judgment, Le Pen is ineligible to hold public office for 45 months, with 30 months suspended. That leaves her eligible to stand when voters go to the polls in April next year, because she has already served most of the 15-month portion of the ban that has been running since last year’s ruling.
But the new prison sentence, to be served with an electronic tag, could prove almost as politically damaging as an outright ban.
Electronic tag may prove fatal to Le Pen candidacy
The decision is likely to ignite intense debate inside her anti-immigration National Rally (RN), which has spent months preparing for two possible scenarios: one with Le Pen at the helm and another led by party president Jordan Bardella.
Mr Bardella, 30, has repeatedly said he is positioning himself to become Le Pen’s prime minister rather than her replacement. Yet if Le Pen decides against running, momentum could quickly shift toward him as the party’s standard-bearer.
Polls have consistently shown both figures as strong contenders to reach a presidential runoff, and some recent surveys have even suggested Mr Bardella would outperform Le Pen in the first round.
Le Pen’s conviction stems from charges that National Rally figures misused European Parliament funds intended for parliamentary assistants, instead using the money to pay party staff in France.
Judges last year concluded Le Pen had played a central role in the scheme — a finding she has consistently disputed.
The original verdict drew condemnation from Le Pen’s allies in France and abroad, who accused the judiciary of seeking to influence democratic competition.
Her opponents countered that elected officials should be held to the same legal standards as any other citizen.
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Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said the presidential election in France next year is “probably wide open”.
He was speaking ahead of the verdict of the Paris Appeals Court on Marine Le Pen’s appeal.
While the Taoiseach would not comment on the outcome of the case, he told a news conference in Strasbourg: “The election is probably wide open, we know that ourselves.
“You know my view on opinion polls and if you looked at them three years ago, I wouldn’t be standing here if you were to take them at face value.
“It’s nearly a year [before the election]. It’s an eternity in the political world. We’re not going to get involved in that, and let the court take its decision today and we’ll see what transpires.”
Additional reporting: Tony Connelly
