By: Abdifatah Abdinur Wednesday July 15, 2026
Somalia is approaching a perilous crossroads, with insecurity, political fractures and uncertainty over the future of its institutions converging at once. The country’s gravest danger, in my view, extends beyond terrorism: it also lies in weak leadership, the pursuit of political power and decisions that erode constitutional rule and the rule of law.
Former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces widespread accusations that he is seeking to remain in Villa Somalia after his constitutional mandate expires, while advancing an electoral process without broad political agreement, a defined legal framework or an accepted constitutional foundation. Holding an election outside constitutional parameters and without an inclusive political settlement could turn it into an arbitrary process shaped by political expediency rather than democratic legitimacy. The consequences could strike at Somalia’s statehood, constitutional order and the public’s confidence in government.
Rather than making the campaign against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab its central priority, the administration turned increasingly toward political disputes with Federal Member States and opponents at home. At a moment of severe security pressure, it has devoted political attention to clashes with regional administrations, attacks on former national leaders—including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire—and disputes involving communities and regional authorities such as Jubbaland and Southwest State. The result has been deeper polarization and a weaker national front when Somalia most needs unity.
Questions have also intensified over the management of Somalia’s security institutions. Numerous seasoned military officers were reportedly removed from senior posts and replaced by people viewed as having been chosen for political loyalty or personal ties, rather than professional qualifications. Critics say this has diminished the effectiveness of the Government Forces as Al-Shabaab continues to mount lethal attacks and extend its reach through large areas of the country.
The warnings are now reaching beyond Somalia’s domestic political arena. International partners have voiced increasing concern about the worsening security situation. The United States, Somalia’s largest bilateral security partner, has reviewed its backing for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), prompting questions about the long-term viability of international security support. Meanwhile, assessments released in July by international organizations, including the International Crisis Group (ICG), highlighted major shortcomings in leadership, strategic planning and military readiness, alongside the escalating threat from Al-Shabaab.
Rather than focusing on reconciliation, constitutional dialogue and stronger counterterrorism efforts, the outgoing administration has concentrated on mobilizing clan-based militias and organizing pirates encouraging destabilizing the most stabile region in the country, while pursuing political battles that add to the country’s divisions. These policies could further strain relations between the Federal Government and Federal Member States and weaken national cohesion at a time when Somalia’s survival depends on unity.
Somalia needs leadership at this decisive moment that can bring people together, restore trust in public institutions, rebuild confidence among political actors and put national security ahead of personal and political goals. It urgently requires an inclusive electoral process grounded in constitutional principles, legal clarity, political consensus and democratic legitimacy.
Former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must therefore seriously confront the constitutional and political questions surrounding the end of his mandate and enter genuine talks aimed at an inclusive political settlement. Somalia’s national interest must outweigh the ambitions of any individual or political group. An agreed constitutional process, credible elections and meaningful national reconciliation offer the only path to avoiding a deeper political and security crisis and returning the country to stability, democratic governance and durable peace.
___________________________
By: Abdifatah Abdinur State Minister of the Presidency Puntland State State of Somalia [email protected]
