An El Niño system has now taken hold in the tropical Pacific, and Australia’s weather bureau says it may strengthen into one of the most powerful episodes seen in nearly 70 years.
Forecasters say a more forceful event could unleash heavy rainfall across the Americas while driving heat and dryness through Asia, where crop planting has already been thrown off course — a troubling signal for food supplies in the world’s most populous region.
The Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures in the area have risen beyond El Niño thresholds, with atmospheric signals also lining up behind the climate pattern known for triggering weather extremes.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific,” it said in a statement.
Scientists have said climate change will supercharge the effects of this year’s El Niño.
El Niño, a recurring warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall — especially along Australia’s east coast — as well as higher daytime temperatures in the south, the bureau said.
For Australia, the stakes are especially high. The weather pattern can cut into farm output in a country that ranks among the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, sugar and beef.
The most recent El Niño to affect Australia, from 2023 to 2024, produced the driest three-month stretch ever recorded.
Another major event in 2015 and 2016, ranked among the strongest on record, brought widespread drought and slashed grain and oilseed production.
