Iranian oil began moving again through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, with the first tankers clearing the US blockade, according to a shipping monitor — a potentially pivotal moment just 48 hours before Washington and Tehran are due to open talks on a peace deal that still leaves major questions unresolved, from Iran’s nuclear programme to the future of sanctions.
Formal negotiations on a lasting settlement are scheduled to start on Friday at the Burgenstock mountain resort in Switzerland, as markets reacted swiftly to signs the vital waterway would reopen and crude prices slid.
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Still, hopes that the war set off by the 28 February US-Israeli strikes on Tehran may be nearing a close were tempered by a fresh round of Israeli attacks in south Lebanon.
TankerTrackers, the website that follows global oil shipments and storage, reported what it called Iran’s “first crude oil exports in two months”, citing digital tracking information supported by satellite imagery.
Iran had effectively stopped tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz since February
Officials said negotiations over a final accord will begin immediately after the signing ceremony in Switzerland and unfold over a 60-day period, culminating in decisions on Iran’s nuclear programme and a roadmap for lifting international economic sanctions.
Under the war-ending arrangement, the United States will permit Iran to resume immediate sales of oil and fuel, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing unnamed people familiar with the deal.
The paper said a sanctions waiver covering oil sales would come into force as soon as the agreement is signed, extending as well to services including banking, transportation and insurance.
Oil prices tumble
Even with the deal announced, fighting along Israel’s northern front showed no sign of disappearing. The Israeli military said it struck south Lebanon after it “identified a suspicious vehicle” near an area where its troops were operating, and said its forces also intercepted rockets and hit a launcher from the air.
Iran’s central military command warned that Israel should “await a harsh response” to the strikes. Lebanon’s state news agency said two vehicles were targeted in the town of Mayfadoun and another in nearby Shukeen, with four people killed.
A senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the framework agreement had already been signed electronically by US President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Iran’s deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
News that the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen sent world oil prices sharply lower
“Likely on Friday… a new round of negotiations between Iran and the United States to reach a final agreement will begin,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
“In the final agreement, decisions will be made on the nuclear issues and the lifting of sanctions.”
Expectations that Hormuz will reopen helped push Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark, down to $78.74 a barrel in Wednesday trading.
Broken commitments
Weeks of indirect talks, brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, have created momentum behind an interim understanding, but a broader settlement covering Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Western sanctions has remained out of reach.
The United States and Israel want Iran stripped of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which they say was buried by US strikes last year, while Tehran has continued to insist that enrichment is its right.
Even so, the agreed framework has opened the door to negotiations over those central disputes.
Asked at the G7 in France when the text would be made public, Mr Trump said:
“It’s a very powerful document, and I want it to be released. So probably pretty soon.”
Iran’s ultraconservative newspaper Vatan-e Emrooz hailed the agreement as a “Trump surrender document”.
Mr Araghchi, however, sounded a note of restraint.
“We have a history of broken commitments… we have a history of agreements being torn up. All of this is present in our minds,” he said.
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In a burst of media appearances aimed at selling the deal, Mr Vance said no US taxpayer money would be sent to Iran under its terms, even as Iranian media reported that $12 billion in frozen assets would be released.
Mr Vance also told NBC that nuclear inspectors would be allowed into Iran.
Analysts have cautioned that the parallel war in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah poses the greatest danger to the fragile diplomatic opening.
Lebanon was drawn into the conflict in March after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel following the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, triggering Israeli strikes and a ground invasion.
