Ethiopia and Eritrea: On the Brink of War?
ADDIS ABABA – In a scenario filled with tension and speculation, the Tigray Interim Administration has issued a stark warning about the imminent possibility of another war breaking out between Ethiopia and Eritrea. This prediction paints a picture fraught with potential consequences, with the conflict’s locus likely centered in the troubled Tigray region.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a figure of note as the Vice President and Democratization Cabinet Secretariat of the Tigray Interim Administration, delivered an ominous forecast. He labeled the possibility of conflict between these historically entangled neighbors as ‘inevitable,’ citing Eritrea’s persistent ‘hostility’ as a catalyst.
“At any moment, the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” Tsadkan cautioned, reflecting on current tensions. The former Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces used these poignant words in his commentary for The Africa Report.
Reflecting on the broader picture, Tsadkan warned that such hostilities could engulf neighboring countries like Sudan and disturb the geopolitics of the Red Sea region. The shadows of uncertainty loom large over the African Horn, and one can’t help but ponder the potential global ramifications.
Despite his stark outlook, Tsadkan expressed a fervent hope that the Tigray region might remain a sanctuary of peace amid this turmoil. However, he conceded that the path to peace seemed to be narrowing, with war increasingly appearing as the sole, albeit grim, alternative.
The undercurrents of tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea point back to an alliance that seems to have lost its vigor post the Pretoria Agreement—a pact originally hailed for halting hostilities in the Tigray region. Gen. Tsadkan astutely observed, “Preparations are in their final stages,” signaling a point of no return, where reining in the impending conflict becomes increasingly untenable.
He accuses Eritrea of exhibiting predatory behavior—exploiting regional divisions, particularly aiming its strategic sights on Tigray, seen as a stumbling block to Eritrean ambitions. Furthermore, says Tsadkan, Eritrea regards the Pretoria Agreement with frustration, perceiving it as a brick wall halting its designs in the region.
Interestingly, this narrative reveals internal fractures within the Tigrayan leadership. Tsadkan alleges that certain Tigray leaders have attempted to wield Eritrea’s might as a tool to unseat Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, before eventually aligning against Eritrea. This oscillation of alliances raises questions about long-term strategies and power dynamics, leaving us to ponder the motives driving these leaders.
Adding to the intricate political dance, former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome raises concerns about Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s alleged stratagems to further entrench divisions within the TPLF, thereby weakening the Pretoria Peace Agreement. Writing for Al Jazeera, Mulatu also warned of the potential for reigniting northern Ethiopia’s bloody conflicts.
The Eritrean stance, communicated by Information Minister Yemane G. Meskel, dismisses these claims as “audacious,” branding them a guise for war-mongering. Eritrea points its finger back at Ethiopia, asserting that Ethiopia’s internal strife should not be externalized and that the root of the myriad regional issues lies internally with Ethiopia.
As accusations and rebuttals crisscross the ideological battlefield, one question stands out: how much longer can the specter of war be held at bay? For the region, and indeed the wider international community, the stakes are high, and the outcome remains suspended in uncertainty.
While many observers may remain cynical, the hope for a pacific resolution endures—a hope that history does not repeat itself with yet another tragic chapter of warfare.
