Mogadishu (AX) — In a highly charged statement, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has made waves by accusing the Ethiopian government of reneging on the promises of the 2018 peace agreement. This has brought a potent mix of disappointment and frustration to a head. They allege that under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, there has been systematic suppression of Somali political participation. Could this friction spell the end of a fragile peace accord?

The ONLF, which had laid down arms after decades of bitter conflict in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, came forward with stark allegations. Among these is a claim that the federal government has failed to honor critical parts of the peace deal. Consider the gravity of their charge: they allege obstruction in achieving legal recognition through the National Election Board, alongside systemic efforts to block the reintegration of former combatants. Amidst these claims, the group also charges that their name has been openly misused in diplomatic arenas without any real political inclusion.

“Abiy Ahmed’s administration seems to have abandoned the principles of peace and democracy, favoring repression and centralized control instead,” the ONLF declared. This strong accusation paints a picture of a political landscape where independent Somali voices are being systematically squeezed out, and political as well as economic leeways are being tightened.

The source of intensifying tension can be traced back to controversial remarks by Ethiopian National Defense Forces Chief of Staff, General Berhanu Jula. In what might be considered an undiplomatic move, he labeled the ONLF as an “enemy” of the state, hinting at their past alliances with Egypt. The remarks, widely circulated across social media after being aired on Ethio-Forum on September 8, 2024, prompted the ONLF to call for an immediate clarification and apology, fearing such rhetoric might destabilize the peace they cling to.

These remarks raised a poignant question for many: Is there a conscious effort to erode the ONLF’s credibility by associating them with historical adversaries? “To suggest we are aligned with external forces is not just false, it’s a deliberate provocation,” stated ONLF spokesperson Abdulqadir Hassan Hirmooge (Adani) in a candid conversation with the BBC.

The ONLF insists it has stayed true to its side of the agreement, seeking political recognition and turning the page on its militant past. However, persistent challenges, such as the claimed harassment of ONLF members and restricted political involvement, seem to overshadow progress. The allegations bring to light the harsh claim that Ethiopia’s actions represent a breach of the 2018 accord.

As the ONLF succinctly puts it, a failure of the Ethiopian government to address these concerns could mark a pivot, where ONLF is seen not as a legitimate political entity, but as an adversary. This is a chilling proposition, one with historical parallels that leave one pondering the repeating patterns of conflict and mistrust in geopolitical engagements.

Further, the group alleges biased enforcement of federal policies by the Somali regional administration, which seems hell-bent on stifling opposition. While accusing Ethiopia of reluctance to engage in meaningful dialogue on pivotal topics—such as Somali territorial integrity, natural resource control, and human rights—the ONLF also criticizes Ethiopia’s supposed readiness for renewed talks. Despite a nominated Ethiopian delegation set for Nairobi, the ONLF claims talks were stealthily abandoned, with public charades of progress masking deeper truths.

In response to these serious allegations, the Ethiopian government has been largely quiet, though past defenses have pledged enduring commitment to the peace process. But this silence leaves room for doubt, especially with the ONLF warning of seeking “alternative avenues” to safeguard their right to self-determination. Could this broken trust exacerbate Ethiopia’s already complex conflict terrain?

The ONLF’s journey, originating in 1984 with aspirations for self-determination, is now at a crossroads. Having laid down arms in the hope of political engagement, the current friction casts a long shadow over what might come next. Does this signal a broader challenge to Ethiopia’s regional stability?