Islamic State’s Most Lethal Strike in Somalia Highlights Regional Unrest

Mogadishu (AX) — “The wind of change is blowing through Somalia,” as the region witnesses ISS’s intricate web of terror tighten its grip. On the brink of the new year, December 31 saw the Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS) launching a major assault on Northeastern State’s security apparatus, illuminating the increasingly sophisticated tactics used by extremist factions. Through precision and coordination, attackers unleashed suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) and suicide vests (SVESTs) on a military installation near the rugged Cal Miskaad mountains, timely disrupting anticipated countermeasures by local forces.

What happened, you ask? Well, the attack was strategically planned to strike a pivotal security hub—a location about 60 kilometers south of ISS’s base of operations in northern Somalia. The militants, wielding SVBIEDs like battering rams, broke through the base’s defenses. Intense combat ensued with small arms and grenade launches painting a terrifying narrative. The official tally reported at least 18 members of security forces lost amidst the chaos, while nine ISS operatives met their demise, each armed with SVESTs. Notably, this marks the first suicide assault in Somalia orchestrated by ISS since 2023, pointing to a worrying leap forward in their tactical finesse.

Northeastern State’s orchestrated counterstrikes, targeting ISS’s hideouts in the Cal Miskaad haven, piqued ISS’s interest. By aiming at mobilization stations, ISS not only sought to cripple these efforts but also demonstrated an uncanny knack for disrupting opponent plans before they hatch. The objective was clear: hinder Northeastern State’s elaborate operation that was geared to deploy an army of troops and heavy machinery against ISS come late 2024.

In reality though, ISS’s ambitions stretch beyond local squabbles; the group is deep into providing logistical and management support for the broader Islamic State network. They rake in astronomical sums each year, lining their coffers through shadowy extortion schemes and unlawful taxation. The funneling of these resources extends to comrades in Afghanistan, Mozambique, and Yemen, sparking fears about ISS’s impact on fostering global terror enterprises.

With an influx of battle-hardened foreign combatants, ISS’s prowess was only magnified as witnessed during the recent new year’s eve assault. Fighters hailing from diverse regions like North Africa, the Middle East, and East Africa hinted at ISS’s now-international roster, evoking memories of how foreign recruits bolstered al Shabaab’s might in days gone by, particularly in the late 2000s.

A glance at 2024 reports from U.S. and U.N. circles divulges ISS’s rapid metamorphosis—their ranks have ballooned to an estimated 600-700 from a mere 250 in 2023. This surge isn’t just in boots on the ground; there’s a marked uptick in presence of foreign strategists and ideological guides. The global spin to ISS’s makeup raises pressing concerns about potential threats, demonstrated by ISS-linked cells causing havoc in places as far-flung as Sweden and the United States.

As 2025 dawns, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), freshly minted on January 1, finds itself mired in startup woes—setting the stage for al Shabaab to exploit such loopholes. This mission, having taken over the reins from the now-defunct ATMIS, has a core focus: battling al Shabaab while putting the onus of state-building on Somali authorities and their global partners.

The water’s murkiness is fuller due to unclear troop commitments; Burundi’s pullout and festering disputes involving Egypt and Ethiopia question AUSSOM’s integrity. However, the winds shifted with Ethiopia finally inked a deal to contribute troops after a drawn-out spat over their role in Somalia—a tempest further fueled by simmering tensions with Egypt about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

In short, the turbulence within AUSSOM’s jurisdiction, coupled with the burgeoning prowess of ISS and al Shabaab, renders the region a proverbial powder keg. With al Shabaab reclaiming swathes of central Somalia, undoing the successes from the Somali Federal Government’s 2022 offensive, and ISS’s continual expansion, the call for a unified and decisive approach resonates louder than ever. Tackling this dense nexus of terrorism and regional discord requires not just fortitude but astute coordination akin to threading a needle in a storm.

Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring